Donald Trump's recent victory in the US presidential election has clouded the prospects for a solid deal at next week's COP29 climate summit, negotiators say, increasing pressure on Europe and China to lead global efforts to combat global warming.
Trump, who has previously called climate change a “hoax,” has announced his intention to withdraw the United States from the 2015 Paris Agreement early in his new term. In addition, his aides have hinted at the possibility of abandoning the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), to which the United States has been a signatory since 1992.
Climate negotiators and observers are gearing up for COP29, which will take place from November 11 to 22 in Baku, Azerbaijan. They warn that Trump’s decisive victory over Vice President Kamala Harris could jeopardize the global funding target. In addition, such a victory could limit the number of contributing countries, directly affecting the central objectives of the meeting.
Europe and Germany lead climate finance without US support
The EU and the US had initially planned to work together to pressure China and the wealthy Gulf states to contribute to UN climate funds. But with the US pulling out, the challenge has now intensified.
Furthermore, “pushing for more ambitious climate finance will be almost impossible without US support,” says Elisabetta Cornago, a senior researcher at the Centre for European Reform. According to Cornago, this lack of support discourages developing countries. Without US commitment, these countries will have a harder time taking Western climate goals seriously.
On the other hand, Jennifer Morgan, Germany's Secretary of State for International Climate Action, reinforces that it will be up to Germany and the EU to lead the discussions on climate finance, thus seeking to ensure an acceptable result.
Finally, the lack of a solid climate finance agreement would be a particularly hard blow to the 45 least developed countries, which are demanding greater financial support to address climate challenges. “Any attempt to shirk shared responsibilities should be met with dismay,” said Evans Njewa, the group’s chair.
Energy Transition Will Endure
A Latin American climate minister believes Trump's return represents a setback for climate progress. However, he emphasizes that investment in renewable energy will remain strong. According to him, this area will continue to attract trillions of dollars. “The election seems like a blow to climate progress, but it will not stop the transition to clean energy,” says the minister. He also warns of the risks of continuing to depend on fossil fuels.
Morgan agrees, noting that “in recent years, despite political changes, the Paris Agreement has made progress in its implementation.”
If the US reduces its support for tackling climate change, Europe and China will need to step up their efforts. Together, the US, China and the EU are the world’s largest historical emitters of pollutants. “If one of the pillars falters, the other two must remain firm,” said a European diplomat.
Li Shuo, director of the China Climate Hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute, adds that China and the EU can fill the gap left by the US at COP29. “A climate alliance between Europe and China is our greatest hope for the coming years,” he says.
Meanwhile, U.S. states and cities are planning to step up their presence at COP29 to push for the Paris goals. Groups including the U.S. Climate Alliance, America Is All In and Climate Mayors will send delegations. These organizations, created after Trump’s first withdrawal from the Paris Agreement in 2017, represent nearly two-thirds of the U.S. population and three-quarters of the country’s GDP.
A recent report from the University of Maryland found that the Biden administration’s climate policies are critical to achieving national goals. However, if these policies are reversed, local entities could still make a significant contribution to reducing emissions. It is estimated that local actions could reduce emissions by up to 48% by 2035. This figure, however, falls slightly short of the U.S. target of reducing emissions by 50% by 2030.
Source: Valerie Volcovici | Notícias Agrícolas
