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The Gross Value of Agricultural Production (GPV) for 2022 is expected to reach R$ 1.185 trillion, according to November estimates. Crops achieved gross revenue of R$ 813.14 billion, with a growth of 0.7% and livestock recorded R$ 372.35 billion, with a 1.6% decrease.
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The 2022 VBP results were influenced by weather problems in the South region and part of the Midwest in the 2021/22 harvest, which affected several crops. According to IBGE, soybean production in the South decreased by 44.4%. Rice was also impacted by the drought, with reduced production in addition to lower prices this year. Despite the problems, soybeans still had a high production, with 125.5 million tons, and corn presented a record production, with 113.0 million tons.
The performance of other crops reduced the impacts caused by climate problems. Among those that performed best are cotton, with a real increase of 21.1% in VBP; banana, increase of 18.8%; potato, 14.7%; sugar cane, 8.8%; cassava, 16.5%; corn, 12.7%; wheat, 35.1%; tomato, 22.1 %, and coffee, 26.3%. In livestock farming, the largest contributions can be observed in milk and eggs.
Negative contributions are observed in rice, soybeans, grapes, cocoa and oranges. These generally present simultaneous reductions in production and lower prices, which affects the VBP.
Projections for 2022/23
For 2022/23, the VBP estimate is R$ 1.256 trillion, 6% higher than this year's estimate. If confirmed, this will be the highest VBP value in a series started in 1989.
Climate forecasts are favorable for 2023. The forecast production of corn is 125.8 million tons, and soybeans 153.5 million tons, according to Conab. This could lead to a VBP above that obtained in 2022. Livestock farming could have a greater contribution in 2023, with expected growth of 3.0%.
The information comes from the press office of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (Mapa).
Source: Crops & Markets
