Wheat exports from Ukraine are expected to remain high, reaching 1 million metric tons in April, compared with 1.1 million tons in March, the Ukrainian agricultural producers' union UAC reported on Wednesday.
Furthermore, the UAC statement highlighted that March exports were among the highest of the current season.
Traders have already contracted 850,000 tonnes of wheat for April and could reach a total of 1 million tonnes. Despite this, despite the general stagnation in demand in the European market, Ukrainian grain continues to find buyers, particularly in Egypt, according to the UAC.
Export limits and policies
Ukraine is a major global wheat producer and exporter. However, last year the Ministry of Agriculture decided to limit wheat exports for the 2024/25 harvest to 16.2 million tonnes. The aim of the measure was to ensure a stable supply of wheat to the domestic market. This was done to prevent a rise in bread prices.
Traders have already exported nearly 13 million tonnes of wheat, according to the ministry. Finance Minister Vitaliy Koval said on Tuesday that he believed traders were meeting all the requirements set by the ministry regarding export volumes.
First Deputy Minister Taras Vysotskiy told Reuters the ministry would not revise the volume of wheat available for export in the current season, which runs from July to June 2024/25. He said the decision was upheld despite the relatively high pace of shipments seen so far.
“No changes are planned. Everything is according to the memorandum,” Vysotskiy said.
Seasonal trend and price expectations
Ukraine traditionally exports most of its wheat in the first half of the season and gradually decreases shipments in the remaining months, switching to corn.
UAC said it expects prices for Ukrainian new crop wheat to decline by around US$$20 per tonne freight paid (CPT) to the Black Sea to US$$190-200 per tonne in July.
“If possible, you should not rush to sell. Historically, in July-August, the market is saturated with wheat from all major exporting countries – Ukraine, Russia, Romania and the USA, and even with a deficit, the price usually falls,” the UAC noted.
The union said the price could rise to US$$220-235 per tonne CPT in October-December.
Source: Notícias Agrícolas
