Image: Adobe Stock
Since June, with the confirmation of El Niño by the climate forecasting center, related to the US NOAA, the duration and intensity of the event remains unknown. What information we have so far, and which is practically a consensus among the various forecasting centers around the world, is that the phenomenon will strengthen until at least the beginning of 2024.
The most recent projections from the Bureau of Meteorology (central Australian) will last until December, which is the limit of the forecast. Average projections indicate temperatures up to 2.9°C above the historical average. The Australian center considers temperatures +0.8°C above average as the threshold for El Niño, therefore these predicted values are much higher than the base limit of the event, determined by this center.
{module Form RD}
However, projections by the Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) at Columbia University, in the USA, indicate the beginning of the decline of El Niño at the end of the projection cycle – that is, still in the first quarter of 2024. In quarter the chances for El Nino are still very high, with 74%. Between February and April, conditions are the lowest in the forecast series with 63% for El Niño and 36% for the return of neutrality.
However, attention needs to be paid to these long-term projections. Even though they are faithful projections, they sometimes converge with each other, the assertiveness is low in more distant predictions. In the graph below, the black line shows the average of the projections; the darker gray shade shows the 68% range of all projections considered; the lighter gray area shows the 95% range of all forecasts.
Source: Seane Lennon and Gabriel Rodrigues | agrolink
{module Read Also}
