StoneX updated its estimate for the production of wheat 2024/25 in Brazil, projecting a drop of 6.8%, from 9.22 to 8.59 million tons.
At a time when attention is focused on Rio Grande do Sul (RS), after floods caused great material and human losses, authorities made a first cut in the state's planted area, which would initially be reduced by 200 thousand hectares, with possibility of new updates in future releases.
“The losses for 2024/25 could increase on two fronts: logistics and the financial capacity of farmers. On the one hand, roads and bridges affected access to ports, making it difficult both to flow products and access to inputs. On the other hand, after three consecutive summer harvests with yields below expectations, the capitalization of producers is weakened, constituting another element that could reduce investments in crops, with repercussions on productivity”, assessed the consultancy, in a report, in this Friday (10).
In addition to losses in soils in Rio Grande do Sul, the reduction also reflects the west of Santa Catarina, the main producing region in the state.
With the drop in production, the first adjustment made upwards was in possible imports, since in a scenario that was already adjusted and without prospects for greater surpluses for exports, a greater need to buy more wheat from abroad is now expected. , with the import estimate rising from 5.71 to 6.25 million tons.
It is also necessary to monitor the use for seeds and internal consumption. Compared to the estimate, the seeds were reduced by almost 7%. As for domestic demand, the situation is unstable, as the initially expected increase may not materialize.
Thus, despite a still uncertain scenario, supply reduced by 0.6%.
Source: Notícias Agrícolas
