According to StoneX, the quotes of soy Chicago stocks have shown a recovery in the last week, with the November contract closing on Friday (August 30) at 1000 cents per bushel, marking a 2.8% increase in the period. This movement occurred despite a broadly bearish outlook, which includes forecasts of a record US harvest and high stocks that could widen the gap between global soybean production and consumption.
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has already projected record yields and production for this year. However, private estimates, such as those from Pro Farmer’s Crop Tour, are even more optimistic. They predict a harvest of 129 million tons, which reflects additional optimism in the market.
Despite the bearish factors in soybeans, the soybean oil market has, however, shown some support. Vegetable oils have performed positively recently, driven by signs of buoyant demand, which in turn helped support soybean prices. The partial recovery observed in the last week, therefore, can be attributed to these supportive factors, which helped to alleviate the prevailing bearish pressure.
The dynamics between the expectation of high production and the demand for vegetable oils, moreover, continue to shape the market. The interplay of these factors will be crucial in determining, ultimately, the trajectory of soybean prices in the short and medium term, reflecting the complexity of the market. The balance between these elements, ultimately, will be crucial for the future development of the soybean market.
Source: Leonardo Gottems | agrolink
