The quotations of soy performed positively last week, with the unfavorable weather in Brazil being one of the main supporting factors. According to Grão Direto's market analysis, the heavy rainfall forecast for the second half of October is eagerly awaited by producers. However, until then, the weather scenario remains a constant concern for the Brazilian harvest.
In the United States, the possibility of a port workers' strike has added tension to the market. If the strike is confirmed, it could directly impact the transportation of goods, increasing uncertainty in the global grain market. In addition, fluctuations in the price of oil and the flow of soybean meal also affected commodity prices during the week.
On the Chicago Stock Exchange, the November 2024 soybean contract closed the week up 5.23%, quoted at US$ 10.66 per bushel. In Brazil, the dollar exerted opposing pressure, with a depreciation of 1.63%, closing at R$ 5.43. For March 2025 contracts, the price of soybeans rose 4.88%, reaching US$ 10.96 per bushel.
Expectations for the Soybean Market
According to the U.S. Export Sales Report, soybean sales reached 1.60 million tons in the week ended September 19, representing an increase of 6% compared to the previous week. China was the main destination, acquiring 869,700 tons of the total. The expectation is that the U.S. export market will heat up in the coming months, with several countries seeking to meet their import needs until the end of the year.
Another factor that could impact the US soybean market is the hurricane season, which is still active. Hurricane Helene, which recently hit Florida, could disrupt the flow of commodities and oil. In addition, the uncertainty surrounding a possible port strike is also causing concern in the export sector.
In Brazil, the country is facing a scenario of record soybean imports, with around 800 thousand tons imported to date — an increase of 700% compared to the previous year. The high export demand drives this phenomenon, which remains strong even with the reduced harvest.
Technical Analysis and Perspectives
Technically, the November soybean contract closed positively, surpassing the US$ 10.65 mark per bushel. Projections indicate that the price may continue to rise, reaching levels of US$ 10.80 and US$ 11.30. However, the support levels at US$ 10.30 and US$ 9.95 may represent a floor, in case there is greater selling pressure. The reduction in net short positions, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) report, suggests a possible profit-taking and a recovery in prices in the coming days.
Source: Aline Merladete | agrolink
