According to a market analysis by Grão Direto, the next few days will be decisive for soybean price formation in Brazil. Weather conditions continue to be a determining factor, with forecasts of persistent rains in much of the country, especially in the Central-West, Southeast and North regions, due to the influence of the La Niña phenomenon. Despite the rainfall, periods of sunshine could allow harvesting to advance in some areas, reducing some of the market's concerns.
The delay in harvest Brazilian soybean exports are already being affected. Data from the Foreign Trade Secretariat (Secex) indicate that shipments fell by 80% compared to the same period last year. This scenario has led to an increase in port premiums, which is easing the downward pressure coming from Chicago and the appreciation of the real against the dollar. However, if the harvest accelerates in the coming weeks, premiums could fall again.
Argentina remains a point of attention. According to the Bolsa de Cereales, the quality of good/excellent crops fell to 17%, well below the 31% recorded in the same period last year. As a result, there is a risk of further cuts in the country's production estimate, which could positively influence international prices for the oilseed.
In Brazil, the market remains attentive to the behavior of Chinese demand and the impact of supply on the flow of exports. If the harvest progresses quickly and stocks increase, domestic prices could face additional pressure, especially with the dollar at lower levels.
Source: Aline Merladete | agrolink
