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Cereal and oilseed crops across Asia are expected to face hot, dry weather, with forecasters expecting the El Niño weather pattern to develop in the second half of the year, threatening supplies and raising concerns about food inflation.
Vast areas of farmland in Australia, Southeast Asia and India are expected to face warmer temperatures, while some growing regions in North and South America are likely to experience more crop-friendly weather, as there is more than a 50% chance of occurrence of the El Niño phenomenon, meteorologists said.
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The threat from dry weather to food production in Asia comes after grain and edible oil prices reached historic highs in 2022 as the Russia-Ukraine war and Covid-19 disrupted global supplies.
“Currently, the global grains market is historically tight and therefore subject to sudden upward price movements on negative developments on the supply side,” Charles Hart, a commodities analyst at Fitch Solutions in London, told Reuters.
“Covid-era stresses and poor harvests of 2022 will be felt beyond 2023 as stocks are replenished over time.”
La Niña weather, characterized by abnormally cold temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, has ended and El Niño, a warming of ocean surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific, is expected to form during the northern summer, according to meteorologists from the USA and Japan.
While La Niña brings cool, wet weather to parts of Asia, El Niño is typically associated with heat and dryness in the region. In North and South America, the weather tends to be favorable for crops during El Niño, although there are still likely to be pockets of persistent adverse weather.
AUSTRALIA, SOUTHEAST ASIA, INDIA PREPARE FOR HOT, DRY WEATHER
A dry winter in central and western Australia could harm the wheat harvest in the world's second-largest grain exporter.
Australia has produced record wheat harvests over the past three years thanks to above-normal rainfall brought by La Niña weather.
“A warm, dry winter is forecast across central and western Australia,” said Chris Hyde, meteorologist at US-based Maxar. “If El Niño develops faster than we are predicting now, it could become much drier and hotter.”
In Southeast Asia, crucial for palm oil and rice exports, forecasters expect slightly below normal rainfall in June-August, although the region will have ample soil moisture following heavy rains in recent months.
“It will take a while for the dry weather in Southeast Asia to impact palm oil and rice production,” Hyde said.
However, northern and central parts of India, which are already reporting a lack of moisture, are expected to see below-normal rainfall in the second half of the year, forecasters said, leaving the most populous country vulnerable to lower food production and higher prices.
“In the central and northern parts of India, extending into Pakistan, the issue is that current conditions are opposite to those in Southeast Asia,” he said.
“The region is experiencing drought, so even slightly below normal rainfall will likely pose a risk to crops.”
CHINA, USA and ARGENTINA
Typically, China sees drought in its corn-growing northern region and more precipitation in the soybean-producing northeast during El Niño.
For the United States, the climate should be favorable for the wheat harvest.
“In the Southern Plains, parts of Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas in particular, those areas tend to do much better, when it comes to rainfall, in an El Niño year,” said Illinois State Climatologist Trent Ford.
Argentina, which is facing a historic drought, could also see better weather.
Source: Notícias Agrícolas
