Sorghum harvest will be 16% smaller


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Even with the increase in planted area and all the rusticity of the crop in relation to water stress, the expectation is for a reduction in total production in this 2020/21 season compared to the last cycle. Low rainfall levels in many grain producing regions meant that the production potential was not reached, resulting in an average yield below that of the previous year. According to the National Supply Company (Conab), the forecast is to obtain a final volume of around 2,098.2 million tons, indicating a decrease of 16% compared to 2019/20.

In Pará, unlike most producing regions, there was an increase in the sown area and an increase in average productivity in relation to the previous cycle. Conditions were favorable to the crop in the most critical phases of development, allowing for better production than last season, reaching 54.9 thousand tons harvested.

In Tocantins, the grain harvest ended in the first week of August, and the average crop productivity was 2,163 kg/ha. There was an increase in the planted area of 48% in relation to the previous harvest, guaranteeing a good final result, exceeding 109.4 thousand tons.
In Maranhão, in the eastern region, there has been a trend towards extensive second-crop sorghum cultivation, immediately after the soybean harvest, as this cereal has greater tolerance to the water stress conditions that normally occur during this period. In addition to good soil coverage and high straw durability, the crop normally has an attractive sales price, with a market for other states and also acts to reduce the population of nematodes that remain in the soil after harvest. The sorghum crop, grown in the southern region of the state, replacing soybean crops, was sown between the end of February and March 2021. The harvest started relatively timidly in some production units, intensifying in August 2021. In the current harvest, the total area was 9.8 thousand hectares, with a reduction of 7.5% in relation to the area planted in the previous harvest due to the lower interest in cultivating the crop. Average productivity was 2,247 kg/ha, and production was 22 thousand tons.
In Piauí, sorghum is planted as a second crop, in succession to soybeans. Planting in the state took place at the end of March. The planted area in the 2020/21 harvest was 11.6 thousand hectares, 59.3% smaller than the area of the previous harvest, with producers opting to plant larger areas of corn in the second harvest. The harvest of this crop is complete, obtaining an average productivity of around 1,264 kg/ha, 30.2% being lower than that obtained in the previous harvest due to the low rainfall during the crop cycle, mainly in the grain filling phase.

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In Rio Grande do Norte, sorghum cultivation with dual aptitude has become one of the main bulky food alternatives for livestock, especially cattle, since the majority of the plant's production goes to animal feed (forage). As the survey only considers grain sorghum, an area of 600 hectares is estimated in the current harvest, thus maintaining stability. On the other hand, the estimated grain production was 16.7% lower than the 2020 harvest, reaching 500 tons.

In Bahia, in the far-west region, in relation to the management system, corporate agriculture presents an intense use of inputs, with the mechanization of area preparation until harvest. Sorghum serves as an eventual substitute for corn in rations in the agricultural and livestock sector, influenced by the high and strong demand for corn. With regard to climate effects on production, the reduced volume of rain in March and April reduced the crop's productive potential. In the central-north region, areas that have reached production are being harvested and sold in their own locations, as demand for the product has become more pronounced with the advance of the drought and the price of corn. However, in most areas, low production led farmers to allocate crops for silage. Furthermore, the last fields in production were those most affected by the drought, which indicates the same use. In the central-south region, the plants resisted drought better and achieved better yields, compared to other crops.

However, due to the price of corn, the demand for silage for animal feed is greater, for this reason, the ease of management and low production make it worth using or selling part of the crops for silage. As a result, final production was lower than expected. Overall, a reduction in total production is estimated compared to 2019/20, due to adverse weather conditions and their impacts on the average crop yield. Thus, even with an increase in the planted area, the prospect is to obtain a volume 5.2% lower than in the previous cycle, remaining at 148.2 thousand tons harvested.

In Mato Grosso, the sorghum harvest ended in August, with the remaining 20% completed this month, and even this crop, which is usually more resistant to dry weather, suffered from drought this season, and recorded an average productivity of 2,670 kg/ha, 9.9% lower than the 2,964 kg/ha obtained in the last cycle. Not even the largest investments applied to sorghum cultivation were enough to reverse the loss. As a substitute for corn in the formulation of animal feed, its prices have skyrocketed at the state level, given the restricted supply of this input, often breaking with the traditional equalization of around 80% in the price of corn. These market conditions encouraged the increase in area, the amount of which was 49.3 thousand hectares, 5.7% higher than last year. At this moment, sales already exceed more than half of the harvested production.

In Mato Grosso do Sul, the climatic problems that the crop experienced during the cycle directly impacted the grain yield. However, the significant increase in the area sown in this cycle completely changed the expected outlook for the harvest. Approximately 68% of the areas have already been harvested, and are basically represented by crops established in the central-north region of the state. In the center-south, where crops are delayed, the operation will basically be carried out in September. In general, the forecast is for production to be 89.4% higher than 2019/20, expected to reach 68.2 thousand tons.

In Goiás, the lack of rain reduced the potential of crops, thereby reducing the productivity and quality of grains. Furthermore, due to lack of warehouses, logistics costs mean that producers have to sell their products on the farm. An increase of 0.8% in the planted area is estimated, and a decrease of 18.1% in productivity and 17.4% in production in relation to the previous cycle.

In the Federal District, the cultivated area decreased by 1% in relation to the previous cycle. The crops are in full harvest, as 50% has already been harvested. Average productivity is estimated at 4,240 kg/ha, 14.9% lower than the 4,980 kg/ha obtained in the previous harvest, a reduction caused by the lack of rain in the flowering and grain filling stages. Thus, production could reach 41.6 thousand tons, 15.6% lower than the production of the previous harvest.

In Minas Gerais, sorghum areas are estimated to have reduced by 2.4%. The area of 195.9 thousand hectares has an expected productivity of 2,901 kg/ha, 25.6% lower than the previous harvest. Estimated production is 27.4% lower than the 2019/20 harvest. Despite being a crop with greater resistance to climate, the effects of water deficit and frost indicate potential for reductions until the end of the harvest. The harvest stage for sorghum in the state is 74%.

In São Paulo there was stability in the allocation of area for planting the crop, however the average productivity should be well below the expected potential due to the climatic adversities recorded during the cycle (lack of rain, low soil moisture and frost). Therefore, the expected final volume is 27.3% lower than that obtained in 2019/20, with an estimated 25.3 thousand tons harvested.

By: Eliza Maliszewski | agrolink

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