Reach a record volume above 105 million tons, according to three private consultancies that raised their numbers this Friday. Analysts cited record productivity with the climate benefiting crops, after a drought reduced last year's harvest, which closed at around 95 million tons.
The predicted jump of more than 10 percent in the harvest from one year to the next – in a season in which the planted area increased by less than 2 percent, the smallest increase in a decade – comes with the harvest having reached this week, in national average, around 10 percent of the planted area. Record productivity is being seen in important producing regions, such as Mato Grosso, increasing the projected average agricultural yield in the country to 52.2 bags per hectare, above the record of 51.9 bags achieved in the 2010/11 harvest, said consultancy AgRural .
“Losses can still occur due to lack of rain in Matopiba and Rio Grande do Sul, which have later crops, or due to excessive rain during harvesting in other states. But, judging by the forecasts for the first half of February, production above 100 million tons already seems to be assured”, declared AgRural in a note. This Friday, the consultancy raised its forecast for Brazil's 2016/17 soybean harvest to a record 105.4 million tons, compared to 103.1 million in the January survey.
AgRural also raised Brazil's corn harvest forecast to 89.3 million tons, compared to 88.6 million in the January forecast, mainly with a reassessment of the summer harvest, whose estimate rose to 29.1 million tons. Earlier, the consultancy Safras & Mercado pointed out an even more optimistic projection, of 107.1 million tons of soybeans for Brazil.
Safras also stated that, after the arrival of rain at a key moment, the fear about production in the North/Northeast of the country is now giving way to the prospect of regular productivity. According to the consultancy, the return of humidity, especially in western Bahia, “should guarantee a reasonable development of soybean crops that were beginning to suffer from water stress, recovering the plants and preventing major losses”.
Private analysis firm Informa Economics also raised its estimate for Brazil's soybean harvest on Friday by 1.5 million tonnes to 106.5 million tonnes, according to market sources.
MATO GROSSO FORCE
The revisions occurred after a week in which the soybean harvest in Mato Grosso, the main national producer, took off, guaranteeing a supply of just the Mato Grosso product of almost 10 million tons, according to data from the Mato Grosso Institute of Economics Agriculture (Imea). “We had a respite from the rain at the beginning of the week… And the producers took advantage of it… The machinery we have in the field today is large and extremely efficient, so this week in practically three or four days we managed to advance 1.35 million hectares”, Imea superintendent Daniel Latorraca told Reuters.
According to Latorraca, if it weren't for the rain in a few days, the harvest would be more advanced. Even so, the supply of soybeans is much higher than that recorded in the same period last year, favoring Brazilian exports. The most advanced harvest and the size of the Brazilian harvest are already well priced by the market, said Latorraca, remembering that the global market may suffer fluctuations depending on losses due to intense rains in Argentina.
“If there is a significant drop, prices could improve.” He also said that the issue of quality for soybeans from Mato Grosso, due to the rains, is a greater concern, especially for producers who do not have a warehouse. Rain during the harvest can affect the quality of soybeans, reducing the price paid for the product.
