Brazil's corn harvest, which is entering a decisive phase, is expected to jump to a record 89.6 million tons in 2016/17, amid prospects of high productivity, despite doubts that are beginning to emerge with the calendar of planting winter crops, a Reuters survey showed this Tuesday.
The survey with 18 sources, including analysts and sector entities, indicates that there will be a growth of 34.7 percent compared to the 2015/16 season, which was greatly affected by irregular rains.
The summer harvest, which is underway, is expected to reach 29.7 million tons, growth of around 15 percent compared to the previous year, according to average projections.
“The summer corn harvest reached 11 percent of the central-south area. It remains behind compared to the last harvest, but work continues to gain pace, especially in Rio Grande do Sul, and reports are of very good productivity,” said AgRural, in a report.
As the soybean harvest, the main Brazilian summer crop, advances, expectations are growing with the so-called “safrinha”, which is planted right after the oilseed cycle in the Central-West and Paraná, mainly.
After seeing prices soar in 2016, amid crop failure and strong exports, Brazilian farmers decided to bet on an increase in second-harvest corn area.
Analysts interviewed by Reuters said that the combination of a larger area and a recovery in productivity to historic levels should result in a record harvest.
The average of the compiled projections indicates a record second corn harvest of 60.7 million tons, an increase of 49 percent compared to 2014/15.
“The area to be harvested and the average yield are expected to grow by 9.2 percent and 36.9 percent, respectively, due to expectations of a rainier year, notably in the Cerrado biome, which covers part of the states that produce this cereal” , said technicians from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), which released an updated estimate last week.
However, as the planting of second-crop corn depends on the soybean harvest, delays in some important regions are already attracting the attention of experts.
In Mato Grosso, the main producing state of “safrinha” corn, heavy rains in the western region of the State in recent days, which even caused flooding of crops, could compromise the ideal corn planting calendar. On the other hand, rain can guarantee soil moisture for a good start in the plant development cycle.
In Paraná, another important producer of second-crop corn, the soybean harvest is delayed due to a cycle that was lengthened by the weather.
“There is this issue of rain in Mato Grosso. And in Paraná there are still lagging areas. As the (soybean) harvest gets delayed, so does the second harvest,” said the director of brokerage Labhoro, in Curitiba, Ginaldo de Sousa.
According to him, who projected the country's total corn harvest at 90 million tons, it is still too early for any damage to corn to be accounted for, and it will be necessary to monitor the development of the crop in the coming weeks to make any adjustments.
