The European Union is heading for a smaller corn harvest this year after drought and heatwaves devastated crops in Romania while countries in the west of the continent saw favorable rainfall, analysts said.
Lower production could make the EU a net importer of corn, more dependent on foreign supplies this season, especially as the bloc is also expected to harvest below-average volumes of wheat and barley, which can be used for animal feed like corn.
Analysts sharply cut their outlook for the next EU corn crop to around 60-61 million metric tons, now down from last year's output of around 63 million, though up from 53 million in 2022 as drought spread across Europe.
Climate challenges and falling production
“The situation in Eastern Europe is very difficult, as it was two years ago,” said Maxence Devillers, an analyst at Argus. “Western Europe is doing well and that is saving the day compared to 2022.”
Romania, which previously rivaled France as the EU's biggest corn producer, has been hit by relentless heat and drought in the Black Sea region, which has also dried out corn fields in Ukraine and Russia.
Some analysts expect Romania's corn output to fall by around 30% from around 11 million tonnes last year, with Argus forecasting output of 7.5 million in 2024 and local firm AgroBrane 7.7 million.
“It is challenging to grow corn at 40°C for pollination,” noted Gabriel Razi of AgroBrane about the heat in July.
“It’s one of the most challenging seasons for Romanian farmers,” he told a webinar hosted by Ukraine’s Trend&Hedge Club. Harsh summer weather also hurt corn in parts of Bulgaria and Hungary, analysts said.
Agricultural productivity in France
In France, a wet spring has affected planting, generating uncertainty about yields, while the south has faced high temperatures since July.
But favorable moisture levels after heavy rains damaged the wheat crop have kept corn in good condition. An increase in area, however, should ensure higher production in France than last year.
“In France, production is expected to be good, with the crop estimated at more than 14 million tonnes, exceeding initial forecasts.” Abundant rain should support harvests in other parts of Europe, although reduced planting could reduce output.
In Poland, the corn harvest may decline by 13% compared to last year due to lower planting despite good crop conditions, reaching 7.6 million tonnes, said Wojtek Sabaranski, an analyst at Sparks Polska.
In Germany, the corn grain crop will fall by 2% to 4.41 million tonnes, the country's agricultural association estimated on Thursday, compared with a much steeper 15% drop in the rain-hit winter wheat crop.
Source: Gus Trompiz | Notícias Agrícolas
