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Russia is expected to export 3.7 million tons of wheat in September, according to reports from AgResource Brasil Consulting. This represents a new high for the crop year, but a total drop of 1 million tons compared to last year.
“Russia's July-September cumulative exports are projected at 9.3 million tonnes, down 2.8 million tonnes from last year. Russian exporters continue to face the challenge of logistical and reputational risks, but at the same time the lack of freely available Black Sea wheat has pushed the total global wheat market to levels well below last year”, comments the consultancy.
In this context, it is important to monitor the status of projections from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) in relation to winter cereal, especially regarding its production. Furthermore, the lack of demand from importers is also worrying, something that directly affects this situation in Europe.
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“It is important to remember that the USDA projects that the world wheat market in the 22/23 crop year will increase by 3.1 million tons year on year, to a record 208 million tons. The lack of demand from importers so far is worrying, and it is likely that the global wheat market will decline annually for the first time since 2018”, he adds.
The reduction in demand will be mainly due to the summer drought in Europe and as European export data suggests that the USDA's 22/23 European wheat export forecast of 33.5 million tonnes is correct. One of the world's biggest wheat markets faces the tightest balance sheet on record.
By: Leonardo Gottems | agrolink
