Investors and producers should pay attention to the possible changes that the WASDE report, scheduled for publication on December 8, could bring to the production of soy in Brazil. There is speculation about a significant reduction of 10 million tons, putting the Brazilian harvest at 153 million tons. Despite the decrease, production still remains close to the record harvest of 156 million recorded in 2022/23.
According to Grão Direto's analysis, in the South American scenario, Argentina stands out as an important player in soybean production. Favorable planting and development conditions indicate an expected production of 48 million tons. Paraguay also contributes to global supply, with an estimated 10 million tons. These numbers suggest that, even with a possible crop failure in Brazil, the market can count on a stable supply from these countries.
A critical point for soy production in Brazil is the state of Mato Grosso. Currently, crops are in a decisive phase, with the majority in the reproductive and grain filling stage. The lack of rain during this crucial period can negatively impact productivity. Current climate models do not indicate the presence of these rains, generating a state of attention for producers throughout this week.
Considering these events, it is possible that soybeans traded in Chicago will face a challenging week, also reflected in the physical market. The information presented in the WASDE report must be closely monitored by investors and producers, as it has the potential to directly influence prices and marketing strategies.
Source: Aline Merladete | agrolink
