The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has revised downward the production of oilseeds in the United States for the 2024/25 cycle. The new estimate points to 128.5 million tons. There was a reduction of 2.7 million tons compared to the previous report. This drop was caused by the decrease in the harvests of soy, peanut , canola and sunflower. On the other hand, the increase in production of cottonseed offset part of this reduction.
The USDA estimated soybean production in the United States at 4.4 billion bushels, a decrease of 95 million compared to the previous report. In turn, Indiana, Kansas, South Dakota, Illinois, Iowa and Ohio led the decline in production. In addition, the department adjusted the harvested area to 86.1 million acres, a decrease of 0.2 million, and revised the yield to 50.7 bushels per acre, which means a decrease of 1 bushel.
With production down, U.S. soybean ending stocks were projected at 380 million bushels, down 90 million bushels. While exports and crushing remained flat, imports increased slightly.
The soybean balance also brought adjustments to by-products:
- The USDA maintained the average soybean oil price for the two-year period at 43 cents per pound, despite reduced use for biofuels and increased exports.
- USDA raised the average soybean meal price by $$10, reaching $$310 per short ton.
- The USDA maintained the average soybean price at US$10.20 per bushel.
Global oilseed scenario
The USDA revised global oilseed production for 2024/25 to 551.9 million tonnes, a reduction of 0.3 million tonnes. Lower canola production in India, Russia and Uruguay, along with declines in soybean production in Russia and China, drove the decline. On the other hand, sunflower production in Russia and cottonseed in China and Australia increased.
Despite the declines, the USDA adjusted global soybean crush upwards, reaching 349.3 million tons, an increase of 1.9 million. Brazil stood out in this scenario, registering robust soybean meal exports in the first quarter. Global soybean stocks fell to 128.4 million tons, with a reduction of 3.5 million, mainly caused by low stocks in the United States and Brazil.
Source: Seane Lennon | agrolink
