According to analyzes by Cogo Intelligence and Agribusiness, the grain market faces contrasting prospects for soybeans and corn over the April-November 2024 period and beyond. While the soy experiences an upward trend in prices in the domestic market during this interval, driven by the gradual improvement in premiums in Brazilian ports, corn faces a different dynamic, with a sustained price trend, but with challenges arising from the reduction in planted area.
For soybeans, the expectation is for a positive scenario in the short term, driven by the gradual improvement in premiums in Brazilian ports. The outlook becomes bearish due to South America recording a record harvest, the US expanding its production and the increase in global stocks in the long term.
As for corn, the outlook is for sustained prices in the Brazilian domestic market, but with significant challenges. Fewer plantations mean restricted supply; Despite fewer climate risks, crops face adverse phenomena.
In 2024, with smaller surpluses for export, the dispute between domestic consumers and trading companies could increase domestic prices.
In short, soybeans face more favorable short-term dynamics followed by longer-term challenges. Meanwhile, corn faces a tighter supply situation and ongoing weather challenges, with potential implications for domestic and global prices. Producers and investors are paying attention to a series of factors that will shape the grain market in the coming months and years.
Source: Leonardo Gottems | agrolink
