The United States Department of Agriculture's (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) reported that Argentina produced more wheat in 2023-24 than initially forecast, thanks to improving yields. Thus, the production estimate reached 15.4 million tons, exceeding the official USDA forecast by 2.6%. With the harvest almost complete, FAS now has a clearer picture of the damage caused by the 2023 winter drought and late frosts.
On the other hand, wheat production for 2022-23 is estimated to be 12 million tons, falling 550,000 tons below official USDA estimates. Furthermore, several local traders believe that production was even lower, at between 10.8 million and 12 million tons. It is important to highlight that a significant volume of unsold wheat presented quality problems and, consequently, a large part of it is being mixed with good quality wheat from the new harvest, as indicated by the FAS.
Growth in wheat consumption and optimistic projections for the market in 2024
By 2023-24, consumption is estimated to reach 6.9 million tonnes, which reflects a 5% increase in wheat milling. Domestic consumption of wheat flour showed slow growth. According to FAS, many consumers are choosing to switch from higher priced food products to more affordable foods rich in wheat flour. This trend is expected to continue until 2024, driving an increase in flour consumption, especially given the expectation that inflation will persist.
Finally, exports in 2023-24 are estimated at 10.2 million tons, with a significant recovery compared to the previous year. Corn production projected at 57 million tons.
Drought during planting limited corn area, but now, with normal rainfall, the condition of the crop is excellent, according to FAS. Corn production in 2022-23 is now estimated at 35 million tons, 1 million tons above official USDA estimates. Exports in 2023-24 are projected at 41 million tonnes, while exports in 2022-23 are projected at 23.4 million tonnes.
Source: Leonardo Gottems | agrolink
