The director of Agroconsult André Pessôa confirmed the expectation that 2021 should see an increase in the consumption of Brazilian soybeans, potentially reaching a new record, reaching 100 million tons for the first time. His statement took place during the fifth edition of the Circuito Aprosoja/MS, held by the Association of Soy and Corn Producers of Mato Grosso do Sul, which this year took place online.
“The year 2018 was special in sales, due to African swine fever in China. We had a drop in the level of imports, after 94 million tons we dropped to 83 million tons”, explains Pessôa. The expectation is that it would take 2 to 3 years for the Chinese market to resume soy consumption, but what we saw is that this recovery took place more sharply. The Chinese government managed to reverse this, including importing live animals and, above all, that traditional pig farming was replaced by modern pig farming, consuming soybean meal and corn, which led us to the new record: 98 million tons of soybeans”.
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According to the director of Agroconsult, China returned to its level much earlier than expected, stimulated by the fish and chicken market. “Brazil will export around 81 million tons, stimulating one of the lowest stocks in history. Even importing soybeans, due to this 'silo sweeping' movement”, he adds, warning that part of the consumption will be on the domestic market.
The president of Aprosoja/MS, André Dobashi, confirms the advance in Brazilian domestic demand. “We will see an increase in this consumption in Mato Grosso do Sul. Large projects under development, linked to pig farming and fish farming, are advancing in São Gabriel do Oeste, Rio Verde de MT, Itaporã and Selvíria, in addition to the prospects for other investments for corn consumption , heating up demand.”
The exchange rate for next year, as presented in the Central Bank report, will not be less than R$ 5 per dollar. “This means that we will maintain the devaluation of the Brazilian currency and we will have interest rates that we have never lived with. Living in a more favorable situation, with relatively low interest rates”, says Pessôa.
“We are experiencing extraordinary soybean prices. In the Port of Paranaguá it reaches more than R$ 140, and also premiums, which are not a record, but even as the trade war cools down, we have a significant premium, this shows high international demand. And this premium should only fall when the next crop begins to be harvested”, adds the leader of Agroconsult, adding that by the end of the year, Brazil should lose little of its competitiveness to American soybeans, which should resume in the middle of the year. January 2021.
Source: agrolink
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