Image: Pixabay
The La Niña phenomenon, caused by the cooling of the waters of the Pacific, which traditionally causes drought in the South and more rain in the North and Northeast, is weakening, according to the National Institute of Meteorology (Inmet). Experts observed a decrease in incidence in February.
The multi-model forecast from the APEC Climate Center (APCC), a research center based in South Korea, indicates a probability of 55% that the phenomenon will end in the coming months, beginning the neutrality phase in the next quarter (April - May - June/2021), with a probability of occurrence of 60%. It should be noted that this is not the only phenomenon determining the behavior of the climate, as there are other natural factors that can intensify or attenuate the potential effects of a La Niña, such as, for example, the temperature of the Atlantic Ocean in the tropical zone or in the southeast of South America.
In Brazil, the rains gradually returned to the South and caused losses in the Center-West and North. The large volumes in February delayed the soybean harvest. States such as Mato Grosso, Tocantins and Paraná observed delays in removing soybeans from the fields, damaged grains, crops that were not harvested rotting and loss of the ideal window for planting the second corn crop.
In March, April and May, Inmet meteorologists expect above-average rainfall in the North, Northeast, Central-West and Southeast. The South may have below-average rainfall. Check out the detailed forecast by region:
North region
The climate forecast indicates a greater probability that rainfall during the quarter from March to May/2021 will be above the climatological average in practically the entire region, and may be below in the northwest of Pará, southwest of Amazonas, east of Acre, Rondônia and south of Tocantins. In April/2021, the most significant values of water surplus are expected for the central part of Amazonas, northeast of Pará and east of Amapá. In May/2021, the forecast indicates areas of water surplus more localized to the northern part of the North Region, while water deficits are expected for the southwest of Rondônia and south of Tocantins.
Northeast Region
In the Northeast Region, the forecast indicates above average rainfall in much of Maranhão, Piauí, Ceará, Rio Grande do Norte and western Paraíba. In other areas, the forecast is for irregular rainfall, with rainfall deviations of up to 50 mm above average in the eastern part of the Northeast and western Bahia, while in the eastern half of Bahia and extreme south of Maranhão, the trend is for below average rainfall. For the months of April and May/2021, an increase in the deficit area is expected, with higher values over northern Bahia.
{module Form RD}
Midwest region
The forecast indicates that rainfall is expected to be above average over most of the region, with the exception of the northwest and south of Mato Grosso, south of Goiás and Mato Grosso do Sul, and west of Goiás, where the forecast indicates below-average rainfall. In the months of April and May/2021, there is a reduction in the water surplus values in the four states and an expansion of the water deficit area, mainly in the month of May.
Southeast region
The forecast indicates that rainfall will remain above average in much of the Southeast Region, except in the north of Minas Gerais and Espírito Santo, south of São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, where the forecast indicates below-average rainfall. For April and May/2021, an expansion of the deficit area is expected, mainly in the north of Minas Gerais and Espírito Santo. In the other areas, low water surplus values are expected.
South region
For the Southern Region, climate forecasts indicate that the quarter should have rainfall below the climatological average in much of the Southern Region, except in the extreme south of Rio Grande do Sul, where the expected rainfall should be slightly above average. In the months of April and May/2021, there is a tendency for a reduction in the values of water surplus for the soil.
By: Eliza Maliszewski | agrolink
