Soybean prices continue to rise on the Chicago Stock Exchange, extending gains throughout trading on Friday (20). At around 1:15 pm (Brasília time), prices were up 9.75 to 10 points in the main maturities. The January contract was quoted again at US$ 9.72, while the May contract, an important reference for price formation in Brazil, reached US$ 9.85.
Soybean prices on the Chicago Stock Exchange
Part of the support for futures of grain comes from the significant increases in soybean meal contracts, which rose almost 3% on the CBOT. “La Niña is strengthening. Argentina and the South of RS are already feeling the effects. Meal is rising and premiums in Argentina for short shipments are firmer”, reported the Agrinvest Commodities team.
However, experts warn that market fundamentals remain bearish, which could result in lower prices in the future. In addition, the slower pace of markets towards the end of the year has reduced trading liquidity.
Soybean Meal and La Niña: Main Bullish Factors
The influence of the La Niña weather phenomenon has raised concerns about global soybean supply, especially in Argentina and southern Brazil. With soybean meal prices on the rise, the market is seeing a more positive short-term outlook, even though global fundamentals indicate challenges.
Impact of the dollar on exchange rates
Another relevant factor for the appreciation of soybeans is, without a doubt, the behavior of the dollar. Firstly, after adjustments last Thursday (19), the dollar fell more than 2% against the real, closing the day quoted at R$ 6.12. In addition, this Friday, at around 1:40 pm, the American currency was down 0.75%, trading at R$ 6.08.
“The Central Bank’s heavy activity in the foreign exchange market, the approval of the fiscal package by the country’s legislature and the improvement in the external mood justify this downward movement. For example, yesterday, the Central Bank sold US$1.4 billion in the spot market, the largest daily intervention since 1999. Furthermore, today, new operations were carried out by the monetary authority”, adds Agrinvest.
Source: Carla Mendes | Notícias Agrícolas
