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The GDP of Brazilian agribusiness, calculated by Cepea (Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics), from Esalq/USP, in partnership with CNA (Confederation of Agriculture and Livestock of Brazil), showed a slight increase of 0.19% in the first quarter of 2023 .
According to Cepea researchers, this modest result reflected opposite behavior in terms of prices and volumes. In this sense, on the one hand, GDP growth was supported by the record harvest in the countryside – which, in turn, also influenced a greater movement of agro-services in the country. On the other, GDP performance was harmed by unfavorable prices for the sector , as there were reductions compared to those recorded in the first quarter of 2022 for several of the main agricultural and agro-industrial products that make up the sector.
{module Form RD}
Also considering the behavior of Brazilian GDP in the period, Cepea/CNA estimates that the sector's participation in the economy will be close to 24.5% in 2023, slightly below the 25% recorded in 2022.
AGRICULTURAL BRANCH – The agricultural sector showed an increase of 0.66%, with support coming from the performances observed for the primary segment, for agroindustry and agroservices – the input sector retreated, pressured by the devaluation of fertilizers and pesticides. In the case of the primary segment, despite falls in the prices of many products (cotton, coffee, tomatoes, corn, soybeans, wheat, sugarcane, cocoa, bananas and potatoes), growth was sustained by the expectation of a record harvest of grains in the countryside. , added to the expected higher production of coffee and sugarcane.
GDP was also favored by the cooling of fertilizer and pesticide prices compared to 2022. In industry, GDP grew due to a reduction in input costs, given that industrial production recorded a modest drop and product prices also fell ( with negative highlights for ethanol, wood products and industrialized coffee). As for agro-services, GDP growth was mainly due to agricultural performance within the gate. This expansion translates into demand for transportation, storage, commerce and other services (such as financial, accounting, legal, communication, among others).
LIVESTOCK BRANCH – Unlike agriculture, the livestock sector fell (-1.09%), influenced by the declines observed in all four segments. In the case of inputs, the negative performance was mainly impacted by lower prices for feed and veterinary medicines. For the primary livestock segment, the retraction was due to the lower gross value of production expected for the year, even in a scenario of some relief in input costs. The drop in production value reflected lower prices for cattle and poultry, as production expansion is projected for all monitored livestock activities – except milk. In the livestock agroindustry, despite the higher estimated meat production for the year, GDP was also pressured by the unfavorable behavior of beef and cowhide prices. As for livestock agriservices, the decline was in line with the reductions observed upstream. The weak performance of the livestock segments, with gross production values pressured by unfavorable prices, must also have been reflected in a weakened demand for services.
Source: agrolink
{module Read Also}
