The total GDP of the soybean and biodiesel chain is expected to grow by 20.72% this year compared to 2022, according to a survey carried out by the Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics (Cepea), from Esalq/USP, in partnership with the Brazilian Association of Oil Industries Vegetables (ABIOVE).
The positive GDP result for the production chain in the second quarter reflected the GDP performance of the agroindustry, especially biodiesel and crushing and refining. This had repercussions on the job market in the agro-industrial segment. Job creation increased by 4.63% compared to the same quarter in 2022. The chain's exports reached a record of US$ 26.8 billion, driven by higher volumes shipped, especially soybean grains and bran.
Despite this scenario, however, due to the unfavorable behavior of prices throughout the second quarter, the chain's real income could fall by 6.23% in 2023, compared to 2022. Furthermore, due to this negative pressure, the chain's GDP representations in agribusiness GDP and Brazilian GDP were reestimated downwards: 24.3% and 5.8%, respectively. In any case, it is noted that the production chain maintained its high economic dimension, with GDP in 2023 estimated at a significant R$ 637 billion.
Job market
The employed population (PO) in the soybean and biodiesel chain in the second quarter of 2023 was 2.32 million people. Similarly, this number represents an increase of 12.26% compared to the second quarter of last year. Compared to the immediately previous quarter, there was a drop of 3.14%. This, however, should reflect the completion of the soybean harvest in the main producing regions of the country. As a result, the shares of PO in the production chain in the agribusiness PO and in Brazil remained significant: 10.07% and 2.34%, respectively.
Agribusiness, in turn, stood out compared to the previous report. The employed population increased by 4,63% between the second quarters of 2022 and 2023. This improvement is due to biodiesel and feed, among other factors.
Foreign trade
The second quarter of 2023 registered a record in exports of products from the production chain, considering the historical series started in 2010: US$ 26.8 billion. Compared to the same period in 2022, the increase was 10.04% in value and 30.88% in volume.
This growth in exported value was due to the greater volumes of soybeans and soybean meal shipped, despite the reduction in the price of the products, of 15.28% and 3.61%, respectively.
In the comparison between the second quarters of 2022 and 2023, there was a decrease in the amounts sent to the Middle East (-30,92%), Africa (-27,90%), European Union (-11,57%), East Asia (-4,51%) and Southeast Asia (-0.30%). On the contrary, values increased for North America (+100,66%) and China (+21%) – both represented 60,58% of the chain's exports in the quarter.
Source: Notícias Agrícolas
