The harvest of soy of Brazil in 2023/24 was estimated this Monday at 142.82 million tons, considering a loss of 2.4 million tons in production in Rio Grande do Sul, consultancy firm Pátria AgroNegócios pointed out in a report.
Positive adjustments in other states partially offset the reduction in Rio Grande do Sul. Compared to the previous survey, the national harvest number was reduced by just 360 thousand tons.
“Highlight is the slight increase in productivity observed in Bahia, Maranhão and Piauí; sharp drop in production in Rio Grande do Sul, which lost more than 2.4 MTs in relation to its initial production potential”, said the director of the consultancy, Matheus Pereira.
Other private consultancies also revised their harvest figures for Brazil, considering the floods in the state of Rio Grande do Sul.
Heavy rains and crop failures: The impact of losses
According to Pereira, the projection of 2.4 million tons lost in Rio Grande do Sul due to floods uses “very” conservative parameters. “The flood factor was that of 'greatest catastrophic power, if we can talk about it'. However, the rainfall pattern that was established in Rio Grande do Sul has also shown declines due to reduced quality,” he added.
According to Pereira, even the regions that did not flood are experiencing intense rains, “which make harvesting with already matured soybeans unfeasible”, reducing quality. Furthermore, Pátria AgroNegócios already had a low number for Brazil's soybean harvest even in relation to the estimate from the National Supply Company (Conab), which projected Brazilian production at 146.5 million tons in April. Furthermore, Conab will update the monthly number on Tuesday.
In turn, Conab's projection is far from others in the market, such as that of the industry association, Abiove, which estimates 153.9 million tons, without yet considering the effects of the collapse in Rio Grande do Sul. Last week , the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) reduced the Brazilian projection, pointing to 154.0 million tons.
However, last season, Brazil produced a record 154.6 million tons of soybeans, according to Conab.
Corn
On the other hand, Pátria AgroNegócios raised the estimate of total production of corn of Brazil in 2023/24 to 115.77 million tons, versus 113.98 million tons in the previous forecast, which still implies a reduction of 12.2% compared to the previous season's record.
We adjusted the estimates: the second corn harvest increased to 86.06 million tons, with increasing expectations for Mato Grosso. The “safrinha”, the largest in the country, will fall by 15.9% due to the reduction in planted area and productivity in the main producing areas.
Source: Roberto Samora | Notícias Agrícolas
