What affects prices in October

Check out below the “five agricultural facts” that, in the view of the so-called “Doctor Agro”, can affect prices and deserve to be monitored in the month of October:

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1. Start and evolution of planting of the Brazilian mega grain harvest in 2022/23. Between September and October, the main producing regions begin sowing and we need to monitor what progress will be like, especially hoping for favorable weather conditions (that the rains arrive sooner). It is worth remembering that the sooner we advance with planting, the better the conditions will be for our 2nd harvest.

2. Finalization and balance of corn harvests (safrinha), cotton and winter crops (especially wheat). As we saw in our summary, the first two have almost finished harvesting; and wheat remains at an early stage, but with good progress. Let's keep an eye on the final numbers now, in order to confirm what the estimates were pointing out in previous months.

3. Keep an eye on the grain harvest in the United States, which is now entering its final stretch. Some crops, such as corn and cotton, have already started harvesting. It is worth remembering that most of the crops were sown later this year, which should delay the final operation, subjecting the fields to the risks brought by the beginning of winter and the arrival of snow. Production, which has already been affected by the dry climate, may still decline at the end of the cycle. Let's hope this doesn't happen, helping to alleviate the high global costs of food and others.

4. Continue monitoring the global geopolitical context and facts such as the rise in inflation in the United States; the serious energy crisis in Europe, which has also affected costs and prices in the bloc's countries and the region; and the sad conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which unfortunately seems to be far from over, including new serious threats from Russia. It is important to look at these facts and evaluate how they are interfering with indicators such as exchange rates, oil, input prices, transportation and others.

5. Inevitably, follow the political-economic scenario in Brazil. Our elections take place in October and, depending on the result, we will have different reactions in the markets. Monitoring these movements to know how to plan, anticipate possible risks and even map opportunities is essential at this time!

By: Leonardo Gottems | agrolink