The estimate for the 2016/17 grain harvest could vary from 210.9 million tons to 215.1 million tons, according to the 2nd harvest survey, released this Thursday (10), by the National Supply Company ( Conab). Production growth could be up to 15.6% in relation to the previous harvest, which was 186.1 million.
There is also a forecast for an increase in the total planted area, which should be between 58.5 million hectares and 59.7 million hectares, which represents growth of up to 2.3% compared to the 2015/16 harvest. With the exception of cotton and first-crop peanuts, all other first-crop crops saw an increase in planted area.
There is an optimistic expectation that production will continue to advance in the coming years, said Neri Geller, Secretary of Agricultural Policy at the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (Mapa), during the announcement of the agricultural harvest at Conab. He recalled that, in the last 10 years, the planted area grew by around 10 million hectares, with an increase of 20%, while productivity increased between 50% and 60%. “The increase in yield in the field occurs thanks to the competence of our producer, the climate, but, mainly, the incorporation of technologies, in addition to credit in long-term lines.”
Corn and soy
The first harvest corn is expected to have a production of 4.7% to 10.4% higher than the previous one, reaching between 27.1 million tons and 28.6 million tons. Rice, with the resumption of uncultivated areas, has a production outlook of between 11.5 million tons and 12.1 million tons, higher than the previous harvest of between 8.4% and 13.9%, while beans, the first harvest , also with an increase in area, could be between 1.2 million tons and 1.3 million tons. Production is also higher by between 17.3% and 24.4%, compared to the last harvest.
The projection for soybeans is for growth from 6.5% to 8.5% in production, potentially reaching 103.5 million tons. The production of cotton lint is expected to grow from 8.1% to 14.8% and could reach 1.5 million tons, despite the reduction between 6.9% and 1% in the cultivated area.
Winter crops
For the 2016 winter harvest, wheat is the highlight and production is expected to be 6.3 million tons, that is, 14.5% higher than the last harvest. In the case of barley, there is a slight reduction in area, but production will be 331 thousand tons, with productivity recovering. Canola and triticale also showed an increase in area and productivity. The first should produce 75 thousand tons and the second, 65.7 thousand tons.
Access here the Conab harvest survey.
