The La Niña phenomenon is the negative phase of a larger phenomenon known as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). La Niña is characterized by the cooling of the waters of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean, in addition to causing influences on wind circulation patterns, altering the climate in some regions of the planet, including Brazil.
The bulletin issued on January 9, 2025 reports that La Niña conditions are present and are expected to remain until the February-April quarter, with a 59% chance. La Niña is expected to weaken in the first quarter of the year and migrate to a neutral condition between March and May, with a 60% chance.
Despite the establishment of the phenomenon, some experts from the agency highlight important points. They reveal that, by disregarding the anomalous warming of ocean waters, the La Niña phenomenon could already be active. According to experts, this would have occurred since August 2024.
But it is worth noting that this La Niña will be of weak intensity, with a maximum probability of 12% of evolving to moderate intensity.
Comparison between other centers
According to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, in its bulletin issued on January 8, 2025, ocean conditions still remain neutral. Although elements that contribute to the presence of La Niña are observed,
The Australian centre has stated that most thresholds do not support a La Niña condition. However, recent observations show that oceanic and atmospheric indicators exhibit a strong coupling signal, consistent with a La Niña pattern.
Despite this, most projections indicate the return of Neutrality in March.
Impacts on the 2024/25 harvest
In general, we are heading towards the end of the first harvest, with the first crops being harvested, with good prospects and very healthy plants.
Even with La Niña, the weather is expected to be suitable for the end of the harvest, with no signs of more significant impacts from the phenomenon in Brazil.
The central-west, southeast, MATOPIBA and northeast regions are expected to experience below-average rainfall in February, which is positive for the advancement of planting, but also a warning sign for crops that are still in stages that require greater water needs, such as grain filling and flowering.
Furthermore, if the dry period is more persistent and accompanied by higher temperatures, it should impact the planting of second-season crops.
In southern Brazil, a wetter period is expected, which may limit the pace of harvesting in earlier crops, but favor crops planted at the end of the planting window.
Regarding temperatures, projections have been showing a more favorable scenario. Although temperatures are above average, they will not be extreme values like those recorded in 2024.
Although La Niña is active, it will have very limited impacts here in Brazil, with little impact on crops in the 2024/25 harvest, according to NOAA. However, great care will be needed when planting the second harvest, with the possibility of a lack of moisture in the soil.
Source: Gabriel Rodrigues | agrolink
