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Corn prices have risen by 18.07% in the last 30 days in Brazil, going from around R$ 83.00/bag to the current R$ 98.00/bag in the physical market in some locations. However, according to TF Agroeconomic Consulting, new increases are under threat from Argentine corn, which would reach R$ 86.00/bag CIF.
According to market analysts, the rise in corn prices in recent weeks was due to the damage caused by the occurrence of frost in Paraná, one of the largest national producers, which had a strong reduction in its supply. In this week's assessment by Deral (Department of Rural Economy), around 42% of crops had poor conditions, 46% average conditions and only 12% good conditions.
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“Yield fell from 5,166 kg/hectare in the last harvest, to 4,020 kg/hectare in the current harvest, with some crops even less than this. The production expectation now stands at 9.82 million tons, around 191 TP3T less than the 12.17 MT harvested in the second harvest of the previous year”, points out the Consultancy.
Experts point out that “similar declines occurred in other states, reducing the expectation of total corn production in Brazil for this harvest, to 93.38 million tons, against 102.58 MT produced in the previous year. Final corn stocks in Brazil are forecast at 5.46 million tons, compared to 10.60 MT in the previous harvest, according to this week's Conab report.”
TF Agroeconomic points out that the increases could be counterbalanced, at least for large buyers, by Argentine corn, which would arrive in the interior of the state of Santa Catarina, for example, at less than R$ 90.00 CIF, against R$ 98.00 ordered currently by local sellers and with an abundance of volume to meet the state's shortages.
By: Leonardo Gottems | agrolink
