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The Brazilian wheat market had a month of little movement in May. Supply is low in both Brazil and Argentina. Producers are well capitalized, with no immediate need to negotiate, and concentrate their efforts on planting work.
In recent weeks, the market has been following the decline in prices in Argentina. This, added to the dollar, which operates close to R$ 5.30, favors the competitiveness of the Argentine product in demand from Brazilian industry. Still, supply is low and so is liquidity, which limits further variations.
Planting reaches 58% of the area in Paraná. In Rio Grande do Sul, in the initial phase, there is still no indication of a percentage at the state level. In Argentina, according to the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange, works reach 10.1%.
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Global harvest
The International Grains Council (CIG) indicated a projection for the global grain harvest in 2021/22 at 2.292 billion tons. Last month, production for the upcoming season was estimated at 2.287 billion tonnes. The 2020/21 harvest was estimated at 2.22 billion tons.
According to the CIG, wheat production is estimated at 790 million tons, the same volume as in April. For the previous season, the Council projected 774 million tons.
According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), the world wheat harvest in 2020/21 is estimated at 776.1 million tons, against 776.49 million tons in April. For 2021/22, the first estimate is 788.98 million tons.
Global ending stocks in 2020/21 were estimated at 294.67 million tonnes, down from 295.52 million tonnes estimated last month. The market expected 295.1 million tons. For 2021/22, final reserves are forecast at 294.96 million tons. The market expected 299.4 million tons.
By: Gabriel Nascimento | Crops & Market
