In 2024, the Rio Grande do Sul faces unprecedented devastation due to the El Niño phenomenon. Heavy rains and floods have affected more than 2.3 million people and left thousands homeless in 475 municipalities, covering 95% of the state. The floods have caused serious interruptions in electricity and drinking water services, in addition to damaging roads, bridges and other essential infrastructure. On the other hand, the agricultural sector has been severely impacted. With a predicted loss of more than 851 thousand tons of grains, especially rice, in the coming months, affecting the national supply.
Uncertainties persist due to the imminent transition of the El Niño phenomenon to La Niña, expected for the second half of the year. However, this climate change will have significant regional impacts, affecting agricultural production and grain exports in the Central-West, Southeast and Matopiba regions (Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí and Bahia). According to NOAA, there is a 75% chance that the effects of La Niña will affect Brazil during the 2024/2025 harvest. Furthermore, André Lins, Vice President of Agro at Alper Seguros, highlights that these changes may result in increased rainfall, changes in temperatures and a greater incidence of extreme weather events, directly impacting crop productivity, planting and livestock health.
Challenges and preventive measures
“Brazil is the world’s third largest exporter of agricultural products, and it is estimated that, even with the reduction in production expected for 2024, the country will maintain its position. However, it is natural that it creates uncertainty and brings financial risks for farmers, since such losses have implications not only at the domestic level, but also in the foreign market.”
“In addition to the weather conditions, Lins points out that a greater parity between the real and the dollar may discourage grain exports and, consequently, concentrate their commercialization in the domestic market. However, in view of this challenging scenario, the adoption of preventive measures and investment in insurance are crucial for the resilience of the agricultural sector. As well as minimizing the impacts on interconnected production chains. Rural insurance is essential to guarantee the continuity and stability of agricultural production in Brazil. In addition to protecting farmers from various risks and strengthening the country's position as one of the largest grain exporters in the world,” he concludes.
Source: Leonardo Gottems | agrolink
