Image: Pixabay
In mid-April, sea surface temperatures remain below average (with slight intensification) in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific. The evolution of key oceanic and atmospheric variables are consistent with La Niña conditions and therefore a La Niña warning remains in effect.
The vast majority of models on the plume predict that sea surface temperatures will remain below normal, i.e. indicating weak La Niña until May-July 2022.
This outlook based on objective projections also predicts the continuation of the La Niña event with high probability (61% chance) during May-July.
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However, there is a convergence between Neutrality and La Niña conditions. In other words, forecasts based on the mid-April model show almost equal chances for La Niña and Neutrality in Summer.
In September-November and October-December 2022 there are indications of the return of the phenomenon, with 54% chances.
It is important to highlight that forecasts made at certain times of the year are generally more accurate than forecasts made at other times of the year – that is, they are better when made between June and December than between February and May.
Most forecasts issued in mid-April 2022 indicate below-normal temperatures in the equatorial Pacific and a continuation of the current La Niña event until May-July 2022. And the chances are about equal for a continuation of weak La Niña or transition to neutrality later, indicating a large uncertainty in the current forecast.
Per: AGROLINK
