More meteorological models point to the arrival of the La Niña climate phenomenon next October, indicating drought for the Southern Region of Brazil. This is what more meteorological models researched by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) point out, after surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean continued to cool this September.
“Colder ocean temperatures on the western side are a key indicator of a La Niña developing in the Pacific that has the potential to change rainfall patterns around the world and impact global food production,” says T&F Consultoria Agroeconomic .
According to the BOM, “all researched international climate models indicate that La Nina thresholds will be met from October until at least the end of the year, with five of the eight models maintaining these values until early 2021.”
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According to the Bureau, this compares to its assessment earlier this month, when it said that “three of the eight models surveyed exceed the La Nina threshold during September, with two more models exceeding the threshold in October.” The Bureau's outlook, however, remained at 'Alert', meaning the similarity of a formation remained static at 70% – about three times the average probability – compared to a previous assessment a fortnight ago.
“La Niña is associated with wetter than average conditions in Australia – which could boost wheat crops – as well as in northern India, Indonesia, northern Brazil and parts of southern Africa. At the same time, drier conditions are more likely in the southern US states – negatively impacting wheat production there, southern India and southern Brazil and Argentina – potentially hampering soybean and corn production,” the BOM says.
The US Climate Prediction Center calculated the probability of La Nina conditions continuing through the Northern Hemisphere winter with a 75% chance, while the Japan Meteorological Agency calculated that probability at 70%.
Source: agrolink
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