Last month was the hottest January on record, continuing a string of extreme global temperatures despite the simultaneous occurrence of the cooling La Niña weather pattern, European Union scientists said on Thursday.
January extended a streak of extraordinary heat, in which 18 of the past 19 months have seen a global average temperature of more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial times, the EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) said in a monthly bulletin.
This happened despite the world exiting the El Niño warming pattern that helped make 2024 the hottest year on record. Now, the weather is shifting toward its cooler equivalent, La Niña. This phenomenon involves the cooling of equatorial Pacific waters and used to reduce global temperatures.
“Surprisingly, we are still seeing record temperatures even without the influence of El Niño,” said Samantha Burgess, strategy lead at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, which runs the C3S service. Burgess noted that El Niño peaked more than a year ago.
January 2024: Global warming reaches 1.75°C above pre-industrial average
The global average temperature in January was 1.75°C higher than in pre-industrial times.
Copernicus assesses that La Niña has not yet fully developed, and the world is currently in neutral conditions between the two phases. Other model data may vary, with US scientists indicating last month that La Niña conditions had formed.
Even if La Niña develops fully, its cooling effect may not be enough to temporarily reduce global temperatures. Burgess said other factors are also influencing the climate, such as extreme heat in other ocean basins. In addition, the main driver of climate change remains greenhouse gas emissions.
“By far the biggest factor contributing to the warming of our climate is the burning of fossil fuels,” she said.
Scientists at Berkeley Earth and the UK Met Office expect 2025 to be the third warmest year on record. They predict it will be cooler than 2024 and 2023 due to La Niña. However, there are still uncertainties about how the phenomenon will play out.
Globally, average sea surface temperatures in January were the second highest on record for the month, surpassed only by January last year.
Source: Kate Abnett and Alison Withers | Notícias Agrícolas
