Imports of soy by China are expected to fall by around 9.5% in the marketing year ending September 2025, according to an executive at Chinese state-owned oilseeds company Cofco, who made the forecast at an oilseeds conference on Wednesday.
As a result, international soybean shipments to China, the world's largest consumer of the oilseed, are expected to fall to 98.8 million tons. This volume refers to the period extending until September 2025. This figure represents a significant reduction. In the previous year, imports totaled 109.4 million tons. As reported by the executive, who preferred to remain anonymous, the forecast reflects a significant decrease in Chinese purchases.
Impacts of US-China trade policy
Cofco, one of China’s largest agribusiness and food processing companies, has seen Chinese buyers increase soybean imports to stockpile the grain ahead of the U.S. election. Donald Trump’s possible return to the U.S. presidency could reignite trade tensions between Washington and Beijing, impacting commodity trading.
While the COFCO executive did not give detailed reasons for the expected drop in imports, he indicated that buyers are considering accepting U.S. cargoes. “Looking at the long-term trend and shipping schedules, U.S. soybean profit margins are relatively good,” he said. However, there is caution about whether those margins will attract Chinese buyers.
During Trump's first term, China imposed tariffs on American soybeans, which reduced imports of the product, even though profit margins were high for American producers.
Internal demand and dependence on Brazil
In October, China imported 8.09 million tonnes of soybeans, a record for the month in the past four years. This increase in purchases could push the annual total for 2024 to a new all-time high.
By 2025, US imports are expected to total between 20 and 25 million tonnes. However, the total will depend on trade relations with the US. As Francisco Magnasco, global head of soybeans at Louis Dreyfus Company, said, this dependence may vary.
Moreover, since 2016, China’s dependence on American soybeans has gradually declined. Currently, the US accounts for only 18% of China’s imports. In contrast, Brazil holds a share of 76%, according to recent data from Chinese customs.
Global supply surplus
The global soybean market is headed for a major surplus by 2025, driven by a bumper crop in the U.S. and record production in South America, according to LDC’s Magnasco. He noted: “At current prices, supply could outpace demand growth in the coming years.”
Source: Mei Mei Chu and Naveen Thukral | Notícias Agrícolas
