Image: Pixabay
The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) released, this Thursday (8), the agency's projection for the 2020/21 grain harvest. According to the data, Brazilian production should reach 264.9 million tons, 4.2% or 10.7 million tons above that obtained in 2020 (254.1 million tons). The March projection is 0.7% higher than that in February, with 1.7 million tons more.
The Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA) indicates that the area to be harvested is 67.7 million hectares, 3.5% (2.3 million hectares) greater than that of 2020 and 1.1% (766.4 thousand hectares) greater than forecast in the previous month.
Rice, corn and soybeans, the three main products in this group, together represent 92.9% of the production estimate and occupy 87.9% of the area to be harvested. In relation to 2020, there were increases of 5.1% in the corn area (3.0% in the first harvest and 5.9% in the second) and 4.1% in the soybean area. But there were declines in the area of herbaceous cotton (-12.0%) and rice (-0.1%).
Grain performance
For soybeans, the production estimate broke a new record: 131.8 million tons, an increase of 8.5% compared to 2020. In March, there were adjustments in production estimates in several states, highlighting increases of 1 .8% in Mato Grosso, 2.2% in Goiás, 1.2% in Bahia, 2.8% in Minas Gerais, 0.7% in Rio Grande do Sul and 14.2% in Pará. The Gaucho harvest recovers of the problems caused by the drought in 2020 and is growing by 74.0%, returning to normal levels. Some important producers show a drop in the average crop yield, due to climate issues, as is the case of Mato Grosso (-3.6%), Paraná (-5.0%), Goiás (-4.0%) and São Paulo (- 5.4%).
For corn, a drop of 0.2% in production is expected (4.4% less in the first harvest and 1.3% more in the second), reaching 103.0 million tons. In the 1st harvest, production was estimated at 25.4 million tons. The most intense falls were observed in Goiás (-5.9%), Distrito Federal (-11.1%), Santa Catarina (-20.3%), Rio Grande do Norte (-9.6%), Paraná (-3.1% ), and Mato Grosso do Sul (-3.3%). Compared to 2020, there was a decrease of 7.1% in the average yield (5,048 kg/ha).
For the 2nd harvest, the production estimate was 77.6 million tons. The largest producers of 2nd harvest corn, in 2021, should be Mato Grosso, with 33.2 million tons and a share of 42.7% in the national total; Paraná, with 13.4 million tons and a share of 17.2% in the national total. Mato Grosso do Sul, with a production of 10.0 million tons, and Goiás, with 9.7 million tons, should participate with 12.9% and 12.4% of national production, respectively.
For rice, 11.1 million tons are estimated, an increase of 0.2%. This production should be sufficient to supply the Brazilian domestic market. Rio Grande do Sul is responsible for 70.3% of national production and should produce 7.7 million tons, an increase of 1.3% compared to the previous month, but a drop of 0.8% compared to 2020. Santa Catarina's production , of 1.2 million tons, is expected to decline by 4.8% compared to 2020.
In beans, there should be 3.0 million tons, an estimate 2.6% higher than that of February. The area to be harvested, of 2.8 million hectares, increased by 2.5 % and the average yield, of 1,094 kg/ha, increased by 0.1% in the month. Paraná (24.7%), Minas Gerais (18.4%), Goiás (10.6%), Mato Grosso (7.7%), São Paulo (6.9%), Bahia (6.6%) and Ceará (3.9%) ) have the largest share in this production.
The 1st bean harvest, which accounts for 41.4% of production, was estimated at 1.3 million tons, an increase of 0.8% compared to the February estimate. The 2nd bean harvest, which accounts for 40.0% of the total, was estimated at 1.2 million 210.7 thousand tons, an increase of 5.0% compared to the February estimate. Regarding the 3rd bean harvest, the production estimate was 563.0 thousand tons, an increase of 1.7% compared to the previous forecast.
{module Form RD}
By regions
By region, the Central-West leads the harvest with a share of 45.5%. In second place is the South region, with 31.4%. Next is the Southeast (10.1%), Northeast (8.8%) and North (4.2%). By State, Mato Grosso leads, with a share of 27.2%, followed by Paraná (15.8%), Rio Grande do Sul (13.3%), Goiás (9.7%), Mato Grosso do Sul (8.3%) and Minas Gerais (6.4%), which, together, represented 80.7% of the national total.
Winter cereals
The main winter cereals produced in Brazil are wheat, white oats and barley. The wheat production estimate was 7.3 million tons, an increase of 16.9% compared to the previous year, with the average yield expected to increase by 17.6%.
The South region should account for 88.9% of national wheat production in 2021. In Paraná, the largest producer (51.4% of the total), production was estimated at 3.7 million tons, an increase of 19.7% compared to 2020 . Rio Grande do Sul, the second largest producer (35.4% of the total), should produce 2.6 million tons, an increase of 22.1%.
The estimated production of oats was 994.9 thousand tons, an increase of 7.51 TP3T compared to 2020. Rio Grande do Sul and Paraná, the largest Brazilian producers of the cereal, estimate production of 740.5 thousand tons and 186.7 thousand tons, respectively.
For barley, the estimate is 428.4 thousand tons, an increase of 7.9% compared to the previous month, and an increase of 13.1% compared to the previous year. The largest producers of the cereal are Paraná, with 303.6 thousand tons, and Rio Grande do Sul, with 111.1 thousand tons, which together represent 96.8% of the national total.
By: Eliza Maliszewski | agrolink
