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The good productivity verified by the National Supply Company (Conab) has allowed an expected production of 313.9 million tons in the 2022/23 harvest. This is what the 8th Survey of the current season published this Thursday (11) by the state-owned company reveals. If confirmed, the volume represents a growth of 15.2% in relation to 2021/22, which represents approximately 41.4 million tons more, establishing a new record in the historical series.
The estimated average performance of the country's crops also tends to be the best ever recorded, being projected at 4,048 kilos per hectare, and exceeds the estimated average for the 2016/17 harvest year. “This yield is achieved even in a crop year under the influence of the La Niña phenomenon, especially at the beginning of the harvest, but on a smaller scale. If we compare with the past harvest, the adverse climate had an impact on Rio Grande do Sul, Paraná, Santa Catarina and part of Mato Grosso do Sul. In this cycle the effects were more concentrated in the state of Rio Grande do Sul”, analyzes the Crop Monitoring manager, Fabiano Vasconcellos. Combined with the good productivity of the field, the area should also show an increase of 4%, reaching 77.5 million hectares.
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An important crop in the 2nd harvest, corn has a total production estimated at 125.5 million tons, an increase of 12.4 million tons above the 2021/22 harvest. In the first harvest of the grain, sown in an area of 4.4 million hectares and with the harvest completed, the production volume reached around 27 million tons, 8.1% above the previous harvest despite the weather problems recorded in Rio Grande of the South. For the second harvest, a harvest of 96.1 million tons is expected. The crop has already been sown and around 74.4% of the crops are in flowering and grain filling. “At these stages, the climate is still a preponderant factor and Conab will monitor the development of the culture”, ponders Vasconcellos.
In the case of beans, the good weather conditions recorded during the development of the crop's 2nd harvest have a positive impact on productivity, resulting in greater expected production. In Paraná, the improvement in the performance of colored bean crops reaches 16.2%, going from 1,687 kilos per hectare to 1,960 kg/ha, which results in an increase of 6.3% in expected production in the state. In Minas Gerais, another important producing state, in addition to the increase in productivity, there was a greater area allocated to the grain. Thus, the new estimate for total bean production slightly exceeds 3 million tons.
As for rice, the estimated production for the 2022/23 harvest is 9.94 million tons, the result of the drop in the area allocated to the product, especially in Rio Grande do Sul, the largest producer of the grain.
For soybeans, the estimate is for a record production of 154.8 million tons, a volume 23.3% higher than the previous harvest, as a result of improved productivity and a larger planted area. Similar scenario found for cotton cultivation. The increase in area, combined with the climatic conditions that have been favoring crops, allows for an estimated production of around 2.9 million tons of lint, an increase of 13.6% in relation to the last harvest.
Among winter crops, Conab presents producers' planting intentions in this survey. Highlight for wheat, the main cultivated grain. An increase of 7% in the planted area is expected, reaching 3.3 million hectares, while the projected production for the cereal is 9.6 million tons.
Market - The good prospects for the soybean harvest in the country influence sales of the oilseed to the foreign market. With record production forecast, exports are also expected to reach the highest levels ever recorded. The shipment estimate is around 95 million tons of grain. Soybean oil and soybean meal also have positive prospects, with shipments to the international market of 2.6 million tons and 20.66 million tons, respectively, being projected.
For corn, the increase in Brazilian production, in line with greater international demand, should increase the volume of grain exports in 2023. In this 8th survey, Conab estimates that 48 million tons will leave the country via ports. Regarding domestic demand, the expectation is that 79.3 million tons of cereal from the 2022/23 harvest will be consumed domestically throughout the year, that is, an increase of 6.5%, compared to the previous harvest. Even so, an increase in grain transit stocks of 1.1% is expected, projected at 8.2 million tons.
Source: datagro
