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The proportion of Argentine soybean meal in global markets is expected to fall to the lowest level in two decades in the cycle 2020/21 , reported the AgriCensus on February 1 of a report from the Rosario Commercial Exchange (BCR).
Brazil's share would be around 25% and the USA's would increase to 20% in this cycle, according to BCR estimates.
“Although Argentina continues to be the main supplier of soybean meal, with exports estimated for the 2020/21 harvest at around 26.5 million tons, our country's relative share in the world total will fall to 39.9% for the first time since the 2000/01 cycle” AgriCensus quoted BCR as saying in its report.
This change would represent a drop of 10% from the record value of the 2016/17 harvest, the report states, with Brazil and the USA being the main beneficiaries.
For soybean oil, the report expects Argentina to ship 5.7 million tonnes of the oil in the current harvest cycle, representing 47% of global trade.
This number compares to exports of 5.4 million tonnes and a 45% share of global vegetable oil trade in the previous cycle, according to the report.
The BCR also estimated that Brazil and the US would export approximately 1.2 million tonnes of soybean oil in the current harvest, with each accounting for 10% of global trade.
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Overall, BCR said it expects international trade in the soybean oil segment to exceed 12 million tonnes for the first time this year, representing growth of 14% compared to the average shipped over the last decade.
The exchange also expected Argentina to export 6.5 million tons of soybeans in the 2020/21 harvest, a drop of 4% compared to 6.8 million tons in the previous cycle and a drop of 11% compared to the five-year average.
The BCR forecast is that Argentina's export position in the global soybean complex will reach 16% in the 2020/21 harvest, one of the lowest percentages in the last 30 years.
“From 1990 until now, the only time that the Argentine soy complex’s share in world exports was below this mark was in the 2017/18 harvest, when a severe drought negatively impacted national soy production, which reached just 35 million tons,” according to the BCR, says AgriCensus.
“These 16% are also half of the record 32% that our country managed to achieve in the 2007/08 campaign,” noted the BCR report.
This text has been automatically translated from English.
Source: OFI Magazine
