By: Pixabay
Porto Alegre, May 13, 2022 – The impact of the drop in the Brazilian soybean harvest 2021/22 should be felt in the total volume exported by the country in 2022. In the most recent supply and demand picture, SAFRAS & Mercado confirmed a considerable cut in the volume to be shipped in the year.
Brazil's soybean exports are expected to total 74.5 million tons in 2022, below the 86.11 million indicated for 2021. The forecast indicates a decline of 13% between one season and the next. In the previous report, released at the end of February, the forecast was for exports of 78 million tons.
SAFRAS indicates crushing of 47.9 million tons in 2022 and 47.75 million tons in 2021. The previous forecast was 47.5 million tons. SAFRAS indicates imports of 1.1 million tons, an increase of 27% over the previous year.
In relation to the 2022 season, the total supply of soybeans is expected to decrease by 10%, reaching 127.95 million tons. Total demand is projected by SAFRAS at 125.4 million tons, falling 9% over the previous year. Therefore, ending stocks should drop by 44%, from 4.55 million to 2.55 million tons.
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SAFRAS works with soybean meal production of 36.87 million tons, practically repeating the previous year. Exports are expected to rise by 6% to 18.2 million tonnes, while domestic consumption is projected at 18.3 million, falling by 5%. Inventories are expected to rise by 20% to 2.25 million tonnes.
Soybean oil production is expected to increase by 1% to 9.73 million tons. Brazil is expected to export 1.85 million tons, with a gain of 12% over the previous year. Domestic consumption is expected to rise 1% to 8 million tons. Use for biodiesel should lower 2% to 4.1 million tons. The forecast is for stocks to fall by 12% to 583 thousand tons.
USDA
The May report from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) indicated that the North American soybean harvest is expected to be 4.640 billion bushels in 2022/23, equivalent to 126.28 million tons. Yield was indicated at 51.5 bushels per acre. This was the first survey for the current season.
The market was betting on a number of 4.604 billion bushels or 125.3 million tons.
Ending stocks are projected at 310 million bushels or 8.44 million tons. The market was betting on a carryover of 319 million or 8.68 million tons. The USDA indicated crushing at 2.255 billion bushels and exports at 2.2 billion.
The report projected a global soybean harvest in 2022/23 of 394.7 million tons. This was the first estimate for the current season. Ending stocks are estimated at 99.6 million tons. The market expected ending stocks of 98 million tons.
The USDA projection predicts an American harvest of 126.3 million tons. The Brazilian harvest was indicated at 149 million and the Argentinean at 51 million tons. China is expected to import 99 million tons.
Per: CROP & MARKET
