Brazil is expected to have the largest cotton export in September, with 200 thousand tons. This indicates a possible record number of shipments for 2023/24. The recently harvested crop is fundamental to this trend, potentially positioning the country as the main global cotton exporter this season.
The assessment was made by the president of the National Association of Cotton Exporters (Anea), Miguel Faus. In an interview with Reuters, he expressed confidence. He stated that Brazil will be able to export around 2.5 million tons of the product. This should occur between July 2023 and June 2024.
This would represent significant growth, with more than 1 million tonnes added compared to the 2022/23 total of 1.396 million tonnes. That year, Brazil faced challenges in important purchasing markets, such as Turkey, Pakistan and Bangladesh.
If the record is confirmed, Brazil could surpass the United States as the largest global exporter. This possibility has gained strength recently.
Brazil could surpass the US as the largest cotton exporter in the medium term, driven by production and availability of areas
“Right now, Brazil has surpassed (the United States) as the third largest producer,” said Faus, citing data from the USDA. These data indicate that the North American 23/24 harvest (just started) at 13.13 million bales, while Brazil's is at 13.8 million bales.
“And it is possible that in the cycle Brazil will pass the USA in exports due to the failure in their harvest, it is possible. But we cannot forget that this leadership would now be due to the drop in production.”
According to the latest USDA survey, released this month, the USA still appears ahead of Brazil, with export forecasts of 12.3 million bales.
In the medium term, of three to five years, Brazil is expected to consolidate itself as the third largest producer, behind China and India, and definitively gain the position of number 1 exporter in the USA. Faus said this, highlighting the boost from greater Brazilian productivity and the availability of areas.
Producers previously told Reuters that Brazil's export lead could have come in calendar year 2023, but Brazilian shipments in the first half were weaker than expected.
Strong September
September's numbers set the tone for the expected recovery. Brazilian shipments should be close to 200 thousand tons of lint, practically doubling in relation to the August volume and growing compared to the 184.8 thousand tons in the same month of 2022.
“If it doesn’t reach 200 thousand tons, maybe it will be close to that… It could be a historic record for September”, said Faus, after Brazil had shipped 154 thousand tons of cotton in the month until last week, according to data from the Secretariat of Commerce Exterior (Secex).
With an average daily shipment of more than 10 thousand tons, according to Secex, September could also record the highest monthly level of 2023.
“With the advancement of processing (of the lint), a very high productivity harvest, we believe that breaking the export record (in 23/24) would be feasible”, said the president of Anea, remembering that Brazil produced more than 3 million tons of plume in the recently concluded harvest.
Brazil expects an increase in cotton exports in the coming months
The country's previous export record was in 2020/21, with 2.41 million tons, according to data from the association.
Faus mentioned that in the first half of the year Brazil dealt with the impacts of the earthquake in Turkey on the demand for feather, as well as with financial difficulties in other important importers such as Pakistan and Bangladesh, which had difficulties with letters of credit, a fundamental document for exports.
But China, the biggest importer, is returning to the market, which should continue for the next ten months, helping to boost Brazilian shipments, he said.
“In the coming months, October, November December, Brazil should exceed 200 thousand tons per month”, he highlighted.
According to him, Brazilian cotton is very competitive in terms of prices and quality. “The price offered is a little below the price in the United States, due to our large harvest,” he said, remembering that another asset of national feather is its traceability, a key factor in meeting sustainability certification criteria.
In August, Brazil carried out the first shipment of cotton to Egypt, after the opening of the market. “Still a small volume, 1,500 tons, but it is important because Egyptian cotton is recognized as quality.”
Source: Roberto Samora | Notícias Agrícolas
