After starting 2016 with record exports, Brazilian agribusiness ended the year with a reduction in shipments compared to 2015, reflecting the appreciation of the Real against the dollar and the drop in national agricultural production, mainly grains, due to the adverse climate . Calculations by Cepea (Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics), from Esalq/USP, show that, between January and December 2016, compared to the same period in 2015, the volume exported by Brazilian agribusiness (IVE-Agro/Cepea) fell by 2 .6% and prices in dollars received by exporters in the sector fell 1.8% (IPE-Agro/Cepea). As a result, the sector's dollar revenue decreased by 3.6%, closing at US$ 86 billion. In Reais, revenue fell by a significant 21%, due to the devaluation of 17.6% in the real effective exchange rate for agribusiness (IC-Agro/Cepea), which, in turn, reduced the attractiveness of Brazilian agribusiness exports by 19% in the same period.
In 2016, the export volumes (IVE Agro/Cepea) of most of the products considered in Cepea's export indices decreased compared to the previous year, with emphasis on soybean oil (24.9%) and corn (24.4% ). Shipments of coffee (8.3%), soybeans (5.2 %), fruits (4.7%), ethanol (3.7%), cotton lint (3.5%), soybean meal (2 .6%) and beef (0.3%). According to Cepea researchers, soybeans, corn and coffee are among the products that suffered the most from the climate in 2016. Foreign sales of cellulose remained stable, while those of poultry meat (2.1%), orange juice ( 15.3%), wood (15.9%), sugar (20.5%) and pork (32.6%).
China remained the main destination for Brazilian agribusiness exports in 2016, with 24.3% of shipments (in revenue). The bloc of Eurozone countries came in second place, with 17.3%. The United States, Japan and Iran also stood out as important trading partners for Brazil in 2016. The most important product groups in the year, in terms of exported value, were the soybean complex, meat, sugar and alcohol, forestry products and coffee.
For 2017, the expectation is that Brazilian agricultural production will recover, with significant growth compared to 2016, according to Conab, as forecasts indicate more favorable weather this year. Another important factor boosting trade is the increase in Asian income, which should keep demand for food steady. On the other hand, changes in the orientation of international trade agreements and treaties by the US government may result in volatility in the markets, affecting exchange rates and interest rates in the international market. Furthermore, trade restrictions may be imposed on the country's important trading partners.
