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AgResource points out, on the other hand, that Brazilian corn stocks “remain abundant and ending stocks in Brazil will likely increase, despite Europe's need for grains of non-GMO origin”.
“Assuming Brazil's March to February harvest calendar, with a harvest of 116 million tons and exports to date, corn stocks on October 1 in Brazil are calculated at 49 million tons, compared to 27 in the year past and a total of 15 million tons above the record that was recorded in 2016”, say market analysts.
Unlike previous years, the Consultancy points out, this winter there is no fear of regional shortages in Brazil, as since July there has been rain in the main areas of southern and central Brazil: “Spring sowing is accelerating. Brazilian corn exports in September are expected to reach just under 8 million tons, a new record, with the previous record being 7.6 million tons in August.”
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“Based on the Brazilian available surplus and applying the normal seasonal trend to monthly shipments, Brazilian exports should be above 5 million tons in November. Brazil in recent years has flooded the market with supply right after the safrinha harvest in April. But this year, corn supply is not expected to run out until the end of the local harvest year in February and soybeans will have priority at export terminals from February onwards”, they point out.
AgResource believes Brazil is unlikely to “fully relinquish its dominance of the global feed grain trade for more than 90 days. During Monday night, Brazilian corn was offered 0.55 to 0.75 cents less than that of American origin. It seems that not even record European demand will shake Brazil's willingness to remain competitive in the world market”, concludes AgResource.
By: Leonardo Gottems | agrolink
