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“In this scenario there is no room for premiums to rise in Brazil.”
Although soybean prices are rising in Brazil, the United States is “taking our shipments” for the months of February and March 2023, warns the team of market analysts at Consultoria TF Agroeconomico.
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According to them, prices paid to producers rose from 1.32% to 3.27% in the states of RS, PR, GO and MS, where there are a greater number of crushing industries, thanks to the good demand for bran and oil in the domestic market.
On the other hand, the “climate is starting to worry” in the southern states: “A lot of rain predicted for the central-northern region of Brazil, little rain until the end of the year for RS, southern Paraguay and all of Argentina”.
Agrinvest Consulting reports that China bought soybeans last week, mentioning more than 10 boats in the US for January and more than 12 in Brazil for March. “Trading companies in Brazil are starting to ask themselves what they will do with soybeans for shipment in February and March when producers start selling. A window mismatch may occur, which will lead to strong pressure on the CFR (cost and freight price post China)”, says the TF.
“In this scenario there is no room for premiums to rise in Brazil – only in a scenario of a stronger crash. The US continues to offer soybeans through the PNW for February and March, equivalent to January and February shipments in Brazil. The price is competitive. Soybean shipments in the US are delayed by 6 million tons”, point out experts.
FACTORS THAT CAUSED IMPACT, according to the TF:
The) Soybean export commitments increase by 4% compared to last year;
B) China may see a greater increase in Covid cases, which could reduce its imports of raw materials;
w) The Swiss National Bank and Bank of England also raised interest rates by 50 basis points in an effort to combat inflation.
d) The Buenos Aires Cereals Exchange reported that soybean planting in Argentina is 51% complete, with the harvest classified as 19% from good to excellent
It is) November's NOPA crush was 179.2 mb (4.88 MT), versus 181.5 mb (4.94 MT) expected.
Source: Leornado Gottems | agrolink
