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In recent days, biofuel prices have reversed their downward trend amid greater demand for the fuel. In the coming weeks, the return to school and an increase in the number of vehicles on the streets should influence sales.
The prices of hydrated ethanol – used in Brazil as a substitute for gasoline at pumps – and anhydrous ethanol – mixed with regular gasoline in a percentage of 27% – have registered a drop in the São Paulo spot market since the beginning of the year, even at a time of sugarcane off-season in Brazil. The new harvest begins in April this year.
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The market even registered a recent increase. In the period from January 30th to February 3rd, Cepea's hydrated ethanol indicator jumped 0.64%, to R$ 2.7071 per liter (without freight, without ICMS and without PIS/Cofins – zero rate), but still accumulates a drop since the beginning of the year of more than 3.5%.
Anhydrous oil had a weekly high of 4.65% in the period from the end of January to the beginning of February, but it still has a low of more than 5% for the year.
“The appreciations were not enough to reverse the strong falls of the first three weeks of the month. Thus, despite the off-season in January, ethanol prices fell last month”, highlights the Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics (Cepea, from Esalq/USP).
The recent increase is related to demand, according to the center, which grew again mainly after Petrobras announced price increases for gasoline at refineries at the end of January. “This scenario led agents from some distributors to close deals,” said Cepea.
As for the daily Esalq/BM&FBovespa index (Paulínia, SP), the price last Friday (13) fell by 1.79%, to R$ 2.7645 per liter.
In a more extended comparison, between the last week of December 2022 and the last week of January 2023, Cepea's indicators for hydrated and anhydrous ethanol fell by 6.9% and 7.66%, respectively.
“Apparently, the data released by Unica [União da Indústria de Cana-de-Açúcar e Bioenergia] at the end of January – showing that hydrous sales were weak in the first fortnight of the month compared to the same period in previous years – did not influence both agents. On the other hand, for anhydrous ethanol, liquidity remained high, which may be linked to the drop in imports between April and December (according to Secex), mainly in the Northeast of Brazil”, explained Cepea.
Market trend for the coming weeks
Demand for ethanol should continue to rise over the next few weeks in Brazil, according to Cepea analyses. “The return to school and the increase in the number of vehicles on the streets should influence price behavior in the coming weeks. It is important to highlight that ethanol sales have been low in recent years and prices at the pump are far from competitive.”
Prices also rose for consumers
After three weeks of decline, between January 29th and February 4th, fuel prices rose again for consumers in Brazil, according to the latest survey by the National Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels Agency (ANP).
Regular gasoline was sold at an average of R$ 5.12 per liter, an increase of 3.02%. Ethanol jumped 1.06% in the week, R$ 3.82. The parity between the two fuels was 74.61%. The price of diesel remained practically stable (increase of 0.15%), at R$ 6.29 per liter.
This research has already captured Petrobras' increase of 7.5% of gasoline in refineries.
Source: Jhonatas Simião | Notícias Agrícolas
