The impacts caused by African Swine Fever (ASF) on China, which resulted in a sudden reduction in its herd and pork production last year, could create opportunities for Brazil to further increase animal protein exports to the Asian country and expand the participation of agribusiness in that market.
The conclusion is from the study “How African Swine Fever influenced consumption habits in China”, prepared by the international office of the Brazilian Confederation of Agriculture and Livestock (CNA) in Shanghai, in partnership with InvestSP. The publication shows that ASF, combined with the Covid-19 crisis, will cause the Chinese to demand more meat from other countries to meet domestic supply.
“The impacts and consequences of this health crisis are expected to last for a long period, but they create great opportunities for Brazilian companies exporting all types of protein of animal origin”, says the document. China, despite being the world's largest producer and consumer of pork, has been experiencing a significant reduction in the supply of the product and is expected to import more in 2020.
According to the study, with the effects of the plague, China's pork production in 2019 was 42.55 million tons, a drop of 21.3% compared to 2018, when pork production was 54.04 millions of tons. Total consumption of the product last year fell by 19% compared to 2018. The estimate this year is that the Chinese will import 2.8 million tons.
In this context, the Chinese government took some measures to meet domestic demand. One of them was the replacement of pork with chicken meat, the second most consumed by the Chinese. Poultry production in 2019 grew by 12.3% compared to 2018, totaling 22.3 million tons.
“To illustrate the size of this growth, it is worth mentioning that from 2017 to 2018, domestic poultry production grew only 0.6%”, highlights the study, which also pointed to an increase of 55% last year in poultry imports, a volume of 779 thousand tons. The forecast for 2020 is that China will import 860 thousand tons of poultry meat.
Food security has become a priority for the Chinese due to African Swine Fever, which reinforces the greater need for imports. Official government data from that country compiled by the office in China show that, in the first quarter of this year, purchases of pork and beef were 951 thousand and 513 thousand tons, respectively, increases of 170% and 65%, respectively, in relation to the same period of 2019.
In this context, the study points out, the Chinese seek to diversify meat suppliers from other countries. In 2019, the Asian country approved the authorization of 644 cold storage plants in the world for export to China, with Brazil representing 7% of this total. From January to April this year, 1,061 have already been approved, more than 90% of which are North American, due to the trade agreement between the two countries.
Source: Notícias Agrícolas
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