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World cereal stocks at the end of 2021 are forecast to decline by 1.7% from their initial levels to 808 million tonnes, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) said. Combined with utilization forecasts, the global cereal stock-to-use ratio for 2020-21 is forecast to fall to a seven-year low of 28.4%.
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FAO said it expects world cereal production in 2021 to rise for the third consecutive year and raised its preliminary global wheat production forecast on better-than-anticipated crop conditions in several countries. Global wheat production is expected to reach a new record of 785 million tonnes in 2021, 1.4% above 2020, driven by a likely sharp recovery in most of Europe and expectations of a record harvest in India.
Above-average production is also expected for maize, with a record harvest forecast in Brazil and a multi-year high in South Africa, according to FAO’s Cereal Supply and Demand Brief. For the current 2020-21 marketing season, global cereal utilization is now forecast at 2.777 million tonnes, 2.4% higher than a year earlier, driven largely by higher estimates of wheat and barley use in China, where the livestock sector is recovering from African swine fever.
FAO also raised its forecast for world cereal trade during 2020-21 to 466 million tonnes, an increase of 5.8% from the previous year, driven by an even faster trade in coarse grains coupled with unprecedented levels of maize purchases by China.
By: Leonardo Gottems | agrolink
