The National Institute of Meteorology (Inmet) released crucial data in bulletin no. 5, pointing to a weakening of El Niño and possible climate changes in Brazil for the year 2024. In partnership with the National Water and Basic Sanitation Agency (ANA) and the National Center for Risk and Disaster Management (Cenad), the report highlights the predictions and impacts of the phenomenon.
Report indicates strong El Niño, but predicts weakening to weak intensity in the coming months. There is a forecast of a possible transition to La Niña in the second half of the year. This information, based on Inmet data, is crucial for government decision-making and risk management actions across the country.
Global climate models predict a high probability of El Niño persisting in the Equatorial Pacific until April 2024, with 98% certainty. However, a gradual weakening of the phenomenon is predicted, with intensity varying from moderate to weak, and temperature anomalies below 1.4ºC in the Central Pacific.
Weakening of El Niño and prospect of La Niña in 2024
IRI projections indicate neutrality in April-June 2024 for Sea Surface Temperature, with a 66% chance. However, from the second half of the year onwards, there is a greater than 50% chance of the formation of the La Niña phenomenon.
Rains in December/23 and January/24 increased humidity in the soil and rivers, especially in the south of the North Region and in central Brazil. Therefore, in February 2024, stable soil moisture is expected. Additionally, in the South Region, high humidity is expected.
However, there is no expectation of an increase in soil water levels for February in the central and eastern parts of the Northeast Region, northwest of the North Region and north of the Southeast Region.
Source: Aline Merladete | agrolink
