With no more availability to sell from the current harvest, TF Agroeconomic's recommendation for the producer is that concerted efforts be made to observe and calculate the costs, prices and profits of the 2020/21 harvest, with delivery in May 2021. “The prices of the harvest of soybeans that are currently being planted, for May 2021, are around R$ 133.00 in the interior of Rio Grande do Sul, R$ 135.00 in Paraná, R$ 130.00 in Mato Grosso do Sul, R$ 126, 00 in Mato Grosso and R$ 120.00/bag in the Cerrado”, he comments.
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“Are these prices good? To determine whether the price is good or not, we have to project costs for 2021. The current total costs of soybeans, updated in August by DERAL-PR, are R$ 70.39/bag, for a productivity of 55 bags/hectare. If we add an increase in costs of around 21% (quite high for just 6 months), we will have a cost of R$ 85.17/bag for the 20/21 harvest. Thus, compared to the current sales prices available for Rio Grande do Sul, the people from Rio Grande do Sul would have a profit of 56,16%, the people from Paraná would have a profit of 58,50%, the people from Mato Grosso in the south would have a profit of 52,63%, those in the north would have a profit of 47,94% and the people from Goiás/Mineiros and western Bahians of 40,89%”, he adds.
According to the consultancy, prudence recommends that at least 30% be used of what is expected to be produced for the next harvest. “Of the three main components of soybean prices, Chicago and premiums tend to rise – due to the drought in Brazil, Argentina and the USA and the increase in Chinese demand and the dollar tends to fall. However, the fall in the dollar could be relatively well offset by increases in Chicago and premiums”, he concludes.
Source: agrolink
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