The spot dollar rose against the real on Monday, in line with emerging markets, as investors weighed the impact of U.S. President Donald Trump's latest tariff plans on a new escalation in global trade tensions. At 9:37 a.m., the spot dollar was up 0.3%, at 5.8101 reais on sale.
At B3, the first-maturity dollar futures contract rose 0.04%, to 5.833 reais for sale.
Trump Trump said on Sunday that he will announce new tariffs of 25% on all steel and aluminum imports into the United States on Monday. These duties will be in addition to existing tariffs on the metals. However, the president did not provide further details on the measure.
Speaking to reporters on Air Force One, the president said he would announce reciprocal tariffs on Tuesday or Wednesday. Those tariffs would go into effect almost immediately. They are intended to match the rates charged by other countries on the United States.
This was Trump's latest announcement on US trade policy. The statement came shortly after the implementation of new tariffs last week. The levies included a 25% tariff on goods from Mexico and Canada. Additionally, imports from China were levied at 10%.
Trump reached an agreement with the leaders of Mexico and Canada to suspend the tariffs for a month. In exchange, the two countries agreed to take steps to tighten border controls with the United States. On the other hand, the tariff on China remains in place. In response, Beijing activated its retaliatory actions on Monday.
Global impact and market reaction
Tariffs on metals could affect exports from several U.S. trading partners, including Brazil, Mexico, Canada, Japan and the European Union, which produce the materials targeted by Trump.
Regarding reciprocal tariffs, however, the impact is uncertain, as Trump has not provided details on which countries he will seek to target with the measures.
“The pressure from Trump’s threat to announce today the taxation on steel and aluminum imports leaves our currency more fragile,” said Guilherme Esquelbek, manager of the foreign exchange desk at brokerage firm Correparti.
Amid expectations of tariffs, the dollar advanced against emerging currencies, including the Mexican peso and the Chilean peso.
The logic of investors in this scenario involves withdrawing assets from countries that are likely to be hit by tariffs. In addition, it is believed that Trump's measures could increase inflation. This increase in prices could force the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates high for longer.
As a result, the dollar strengthens. This scenario contributes to an increase in Treasury yields. As a result, US assets become more attractive to foreign investors.
Inflation outlook and market reaction
On the domestic scene, the release of the Central Bank's Focus survey marked the session, and the market once again raised its projections for Brazilian inflation in 2025 and 2026.
The survey, which captures market perceptions of economic indicators, showed that the expectation for the IPCA is now an increase of 5.58% by the end of this year, from 5.51% in the previous survey. For 2026, the projection for Brazilian inflation is 4.30%, from 4.28% previously.
Investors will be positioning themselves in this session for the release of January IPCA data on Tuesday, with economists polled by Reuters forecasting that price increases will slow to 0.14% on a monthly basis, from an increase of 0.52% in December.
Source: Fernando Cardoso | Notícias Agrícolas
