Image: Adobe Stock
Live pig prices have been falling on the Chinese domestic market, and are now priced at the same pre-pandemic levels. This drop implies a reduction in the Chinese pig farmer's margin, which could reduce the growth rate of the herd and, consequently, the consumption of soybean meal stock.
According to Grão Direto specialist, Ruan Sene, the climate is and could remain favorable. Weather models are showing good rain for the next two weeks in the farm belt. Soybeans are close to their final phase, with 78% of crops already flowering and 47% with pods formed since the last report. In other words, if the predictions are confirmed, the grain filling phase will have good conditions to develop satisfactorily.
{module Form RD}
The next global supply and demand report. will show the latest expectations before the start of the harvest in the USA, considering that the harvest will pick up pace in early September. In relation to production expectations, the report may bring a slight negative adjustment in production, contrary to market expectations, which expect a considerable readjustment. For Brazil and Argentina, the numbers must be maintained.
Large volume of rain is forecast in the Chinese producing belt. The North American climate model shows a forecast of good rains for eastern China, a producing region that had a volume of rainfall below the historical level, but which is beginning to return to the average. China is today the largest demander of agricultural commodities in the world and, good production in the largest consumer indicates a less active participation in the international market.
Dollar may continue to rise. With the beginning of the fall in interest rates in Brazil, and the continuation of high interest rates in the USA, there will possibly be a migration of foreign capital to the North American economy, which increases the value of the dollar in relation to the real.
According to Ruan Sene, soybeans in Chicago could have a negative week, resulting in a devaluation of prices in the Brazilian domestic market.
Source: Aline Merladete | agrolink
{module Read Also}
