The thesis defended by AviSite that SECEX/ME data relating to exports from the first five days of August are inflated by unaccounted remains from the previous month (see “Chicken meat shipments: inconsistency in the first August numbers”) is not supported. Restricted to chicken meat, it also extends to beef and pork.
Not that meat exports will face any setback this month: all market indicators point to advances that could be significant. But it is difficult – if not impossible – to count on an increase that, based on the daily average, represents an increase in volume of more than 40% for beef, more than 50% for chicken meat or more than 170% for pork.
{module 442}
A brief retrospective covering the last 24 months shows that the maximum reached by the three meats combined was just over 600 thousand tons. The detail, in this case, is that the maximum for each meat was reached in different months. But the current daily average leads to a monthly projection about a third higher, just in a single month.
Unless, maintaining the same parameters, this month's final shipments are only recorded in September, the August numbers will no longer provide a faithful portrait of the behavior of exports in the month. In any case, daily shipments this and the next two weeks will be a good indication of the progress of the export sector.
Source: Notícias Agrícolas
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{module 441}
